Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty (100% implied probability) for Chengdu's highest temperature reaching 23°C or higher on May 15, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration forecasts projecting a daytime maximum around 25°C amid light rain and mostly cloudy skies, with morning lows near 18°C. This aligns with mid-May climatology in the Sichuan Basin, where average highs hit 27°C and topographic warmth trapping sustains peaks even under overcast conditions—evidenced by May 14's observed 25°C high in similar weather. Model ensembles from CMA and international sources show tight agreement on limited cooling. Realistic challenges include prolonged heavy precipitation or sudden cool air advection suppressing afternoon heating to 22°C, though upper-level ridge stability makes this unlikely. Hourly observations from Shuangliu Airport station will finalize resolution via official records.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트5월 15일 청두에서 가장 높은 기온?
5월 15일 청두에서 가장 높은 기온?
23°C 이상 100.0%
13°C 이하 <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$39,695 거래량
$39,695 거래량
2026.05.15
13°C 이하
아니오
14°C
아니오
15°C
아니오
16°C
아니오
17°C
아니오
18°C
아니오
19°C
아니오
20°C
아니오
21°C
아니오
22°C
아니오
23°C 이상
예
23°C 이상 100.0%
13°C 이하 <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$39,695 거래량
$39,695 거래량
2026.05.15
13°C 이하
$1,206 거래량
아니오
14°C
$1,150 거래량
아니오
15°C
$1,339 거래량
아니오
16°C
$1,244 거래량
아니오
17°C
$1,145 거래량
아니오
18°C
$1,983 거래량
아니오
19°C
$2,353 거래량
아니오
20°C
$4,867 거래량
아니오
21°C
$6,709 거래량
아니오
22°C
$10,877 거래량
아니오
23°C 이상
$6,821 거래량
예
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty (100% implied probability) for Chengdu's highest temperature reaching 23°C or higher on May 15, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration forecasts projecting a daytime maximum around 25°C amid light rain and mostly cloudy skies, with morning lows near 18°C. This aligns with mid-May climatology in the Sichuan Basin, where average highs hit 27°C and topographic warmth trapping sustains peaks even under overcast conditions—evidenced by May 14's observed 25°C high in similar weather. Model ensembles from CMA and international sources show tight agreement on limited cooling. Realistic challenges include prolonged heavy precipitation or sudden cool air advection suppressing afternoon heating to 22°C, though upper-level ridge stability makes this unlikely. Hourly observations from Shuangliu Airport station will finalize resolution via official records.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
마켓 개설일: May 13, 2026, 12:09 AM ET
거래량
$39,695종료일
2026.05.15마켓 개설일
May 13, 2026, 12:09 AM ET결과 제안됨: 아니오
이의 없음
최종 결과: 아니오
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty (100% implied probability) for Chengdu's highest temperature reaching 23°C or higher on May 15, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration forecasts projecting a daytime maximum around 25°C amid light rain and mostly cloudy skies, with morning lows near 18°C. This aligns with mid-May climatology in the Sichuan Basin, where average highs hit 27°C and topographic warmth trapping sustains peaks even under overcast conditions—evidenced by May 14's observed 25°C high in similar weather. Model ensembles from CMA and international sources show tight agreement on limited cooling. Realistic challenges include prolonged heavy precipitation or sudden cool air advection suppressing afternoon heating to 22°C, though upper-level ridge stability makes this unlikely. Hourly observations from Shuangliu Airport station will finalize resolution via official records.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
거래량
$39,695종료일
2026.05.15마켓 개설일
May 13, 2026, 12:09 AM ET결과 제안됨: 아니오
이의 없음
최종 결과: 아니오
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty (100% implied probability) for Chengdu's highest temperature reaching 23°C or higher on May 15, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration forecasts projecting a daytime maximum around 25°C amid light rain and mostly cloudy skies, with morning lows near 18°C. This aligns with mid-May climatology in the Sichuan Basin, where average highs hit 27°C and topographic warmth trapping sustains peaks even under overcast conditions—evidenced by May 14's observed 25°C high in similar weather. Model ensembles from CMA and international sources show tight agreement on limited cooling. Realistic challenges include prolonged heavy precipitation or sudden cool air advection suppressing afternoon heating to 22°C, though upper-level ridge stability makes this unlikely. Hourly observations from Shuangliu Airport station will finalize resolution via official records.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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