Current ensemble forecasts from global models position Chengdu’s May 18 maximum in the narrow 28–32 °C window, reflecting the city’s location in the Sichuan Basin where southerly flow and increasing solar insolation drive late-spring warming. Subtropical high pressure supports gradual daytime heating while scattered afternoon convection introduces 1–2 °C day-to-day variability, keeping probabilities tightly bunched across the 29–33 °C brackets. Historical May averages near 29 °C provide a climatological baseline, yet short-term model spread and potential urban heat-island amplification leave room for modest upside or downside shifts before final observational resolution.