Recent forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and ensemble models show daily maximum temperatures in Chongqing tightly clustered around 25–26 °C on May 17, reflecting light rain, persistent low-level moisture that limits afternoon heating, and modest warmth from southerly flow. This consensus aligns closely with the market’s leading outcomes near 24 °C and 25 °C, where modest differences in boundary-layer mixing and cloud cover will determine whether readings reach the upper or lower end of the range. The long-term May average high of roughly 26 °C provides climatological context, yet current guidance indicates slightly cooler conditions than recent days. Traders will monitor final model runs overnight for any shifts in precipitation timing or wind strength that could nudge the official reading at Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport one degree higher or lower.