National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs from the GFS and ECMWF consistently projected a daytime high near 77°F for New York City on May 16 under a strengthening high-pressure ridge that delivered clear skies and light southerly flow. This meteorological setup produced minimal cloud cover and modest warming, aligning closely with the 76-77°F range that now carries a 99.6% market-implied probability. Traders appear to have anchored on the tight consensus between official forecasts and historical climatology for mid-May, when average highs hover around 72-77°F. Only an unexpected station-specific anomaly at LaGuardia Airport or a last-minute shift in boundary-layer mixing could realistically push the recorded maximum outside that narrow band.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트Highest temperature in NYC on May 16?
Highest temperature in NYC on May 16?
76-77°F 99.9%
80-81°F <1%
78-79°F <1%
82-83°F <1%
$165,197 거래량
$165,197 거래량
2026.05.16
76-77°F
100%
78-79°F
<1%
80-81°F
<1%
82-83°F
<1%
84°F or higher
<1%
76-77°F 99.9%
80-81°F <1%
78-79°F <1%
82-83°F <1%
$165,197 거래량
$165,197 거래량
2026.05.16
76-77°F
$37,403 거래량
100%
78-79°F
$22,298 거래량
<1%
80-81°F
$26,827 거래량
<1%
82-83°F
$22,834 거래량
<1%
84°F or higher
$16,853 거래량
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs from the GFS and ECMWF consistently projected a daytime high near 77°F for New York City on May 16 under a strengthening high-pressure ridge that delivered clear skies and light southerly flow. This meteorological setup produced minimal cloud cover and modest warming, aligning closely with the 76-77°F range that now carries a 99.6% market-implied probability. Traders appear to have anchored on the tight consensus between official forecasts and historical climatology for mid-May, when average highs hover around 72-77°F. Only an unexpected station-specific anomaly at LaGuardia Airport or a last-minute shift in boundary-layer mixing could realistically push the recorded maximum outside that narrow band.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
마켓 개설일: May 14, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
거래량
$165,197종료일
2026.05.16마켓 개설일
May 14, 2026, 12:06 AM ET결과 제안됨: No
이의 없음
최종 결과: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs from the GFS and ECMWF consistently projected a daytime high near 77°F for New York City on May 16 under a strengthening high-pressure ridge that delivered clear skies and light southerly flow. This meteorological setup produced minimal cloud cover and modest warming, aligning closely with the 76-77°F range that now carries a 99.6% market-implied probability. Traders appear to have anchored on the tight consensus between official forecasts and historical climatology for mid-May, when average highs hover around 72-77°F. Only an unexpected station-specific anomaly at LaGuardia Airport or a last-minute shift in boundary-layer mixing could realistically push the recorded maximum outside that narrow band.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
거래량
$165,197종료일
2026.05.16마켓 개설일
May 14, 2026, 12:06 AM ET결과 제안됨: No
이의 없음
최종 결과: No
National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs from the GFS and ECMWF consistently projected a daytime high near 77°F for New York City on May 16 under a strengthening high-pressure ridge that delivered clear skies and light southerly flow. This meteorological setup produced minimal cloud cover and modest warming, aligning closely with the 76-77°F range that now carries a 99.6% market-implied probability. Traders appear to have anchored on the tight consensus between official forecasts and historical climatology for mid-May, when average highs hover around 72-77°F. Only an unexpected station-specific anomaly at LaGuardia Airport or a last-minute shift in boundary-layer mixing could realistically push the recorded maximum outside that narrow band.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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