Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a 20°C lowest temperature in Shanghai on May 15, driven by confirmed observational data from official China Meteorological Administration stations, including Shanghai Hongqiao Airport, recording an early-morning minimum of approximately 20–21°C (70°F) under clear skies with minimal cloud cover. This aligns with short-range forecast models like GFS and ECMWF, which projected overnight lows around 19–20°C amid light winds and typical May diurnal warming patterns, preventing further cooling as daytime highs approached 29°C (84°F). Realistic challenges would require an anomalous late-evening radiative cooling event—unlikely given persistent partly sunny conditions and urban heat island effects—but final CMA verification could incorporate any unreported dips at secondary stations.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트Lowest temperature in Shanghai on May 15?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on May 15?
20°C 100.0%
14°C 이하 <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$12,323 거래량
$12,323 거래량
2026.05.15
14°C 이하
아니오
15°C
No
16°C
아니오
17°C
아니오
18°C
No
19°C
아니오
20°C
예
21°C
아니오
22°C
아니오
23°C
아니오
24°C 이상
아니오
20°C 100.0%
14°C 이하 <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$12,323 거래량
$12,323 거래량
2026.05.15
14°C 이하
$966 거래량
아니오
15°C
$887 거래량
No
16°C
$942 거래량
아니오
17°C
$889 거래량
아니오
18°C
$990 거래량
No
19°C
$1,997 거래량
아니오
20°C
$1,583 거래량
예
21°C
$2,388 거래량
아니오
22°C
$449 거래량
아니오
23°C
$1,003 거래량
아니오
24°C 이상
$230 거래량
아니오
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a 20°C lowest temperature in Shanghai on May 15, driven by confirmed observational data from official China Meteorological Administration stations, including Shanghai Hongqiao Airport, recording an early-morning minimum of approximately 20–21°C (70°F) under clear skies with minimal cloud cover. This aligns with short-range forecast models like GFS and ECMWF, which projected overnight lows around 19–20°C amid light winds and typical May diurnal warming patterns, preventing further cooling as daytime highs approached 29°C (84°F). Realistic challenges would require an anomalous late-evening radiative cooling event—unlikely given persistent partly sunny conditions and urban heat island effects—but final CMA verification could incorporate any unreported dips at secondary stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
마켓 개설일: May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ET
거래량
$12,323종료일
2026.05.15마켓 개설일
May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ET결과 제안됨: 아니오
이의 없음
최종 결과: 아니오
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a 20°C lowest temperature in Shanghai on May 15, driven by confirmed observational data from official China Meteorological Administration stations, including Shanghai Hongqiao Airport, recording an early-morning minimum of approximately 20–21°C (70°F) under clear skies with minimal cloud cover. This aligns with short-range forecast models like GFS and ECMWF, which projected overnight lows around 19–20°C amid light winds and typical May diurnal warming patterns, preventing further cooling as daytime highs approached 29°C (84°F). Realistic challenges would require an anomalous late-evening radiative cooling event—unlikely given persistent partly sunny conditions and urban heat island effects—but final CMA verification could incorporate any unreported dips at secondary stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
거래량
$12,323종료일
2026.05.15마켓 개설일
May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ET결과 제안됨: 아니오
이의 없음
최종 결과: 아니오
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a 20°C lowest temperature in Shanghai on May 15, driven by confirmed observational data from official China Meteorological Administration stations, including Shanghai Hongqiao Airport, recording an early-morning minimum of approximately 20–21°C (70°F) under clear skies with minimal cloud cover. This aligns with short-range forecast models like GFS and ECMWF, which projected overnight lows around 19–20°C amid light winds and typical May diurnal warming patterns, preventing further cooling as daytime highs approached 29°C (84°F). Realistic challenges would require an anomalous late-evening radiative cooling event—unlikely given persistent partly sunny conditions and urban heat island effects—but final CMA verification could incorporate any unreported dips at secondary stations.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문