The open-seat contest for New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District, vacated by retiring Democrat Chris Pappas to pursue a U.S. Senate bid, remains structurally favorable to Democrats in a district that leaned D+2 in the prior cycle. Multiple Democratic contenders, including Stefany Shaheen and leading fundraiser Maura Sullivan, are competing in the September 8 primary while Republicans field a crowded field that has yet to consolidate. Fundraising reports through early 2026 show Democratic candidates maintaining clear financial edges, and historical patterns in similar open House races indicate incumbency loss rarely flips a modestly Democratic district absent major national shifts. Traders therefore assign an 86.9 percent implied probability to a Democratic winner, reflecting the district’s partisan baseline and the absence of any recent developments that have altered that positioning.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.11.04
Democratic Party
87%
Republican Party
13%
신규
신규
2026.11.04
Democratic Party
$3,625 거래량
87%
Republican Party
$2,912 거래량
13%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NH-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The open-seat contest for New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District, vacated by retiring Democrat Chris Pappas to pursue a U.S. Senate bid, remains structurally favorable to Democrats in a district that leaned D+2 in the prior cycle. Multiple Democratic contenders, including Stefany Shaheen and leading fundraiser Maura Sullivan, are competing in the September 8 primary while Republicans field a crowded field that has yet to consolidate. Fundraising reports through early 2026 show Democratic candidates maintaining clear financial edges, and historical patterns in similar open House races indicate incumbency loss rarely flips a modestly Democratic district absent major national shifts. Traders therefore assign an 86.9 percent implied probability to a Democratic winner, reflecting the district’s partisan baseline and the absence of any recent developments that have altered that positioning.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NH-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ET
거래량
$6,538종료일
2026.11.04마켓 개설일
Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NH-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The open-seat contest for New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District, vacated by retiring Democrat Chris Pappas to pursue a U.S. Senate bid, remains structurally favorable to Democrats in a district that leaned D+2 in the prior cycle. Multiple Democratic contenders, including Stefany Shaheen and leading fundraiser Maura Sullivan, are competing in the September 8 primary while Republicans field a crowded field that has yet to consolidate. Fundraising reports through early 2026 show Democratic candidates maintaining clear financial edges, and historical patterns in similar open House races indicate incumbency loss rarely flips a modestly Democratic district absent major national shifts. Traders therefore assign an 86.9 percent implied probability to a Democratic winner, reflecting the district’s partisan baseline and the absence of any recent developments that have altered that positioning.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NH-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$6,538종료일
2026.11.04마켓 개설일
Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The open-seat contest for New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District, vacated by retiring Democrat Chris Pappas to pursue a U.S. Senate bid, remains structurally favorable to Democrats in a district that leaned D+2 in the prior cycle. Multiple Democratic contenders, including Stefany Shaheen and leading fundraiser Maura Sullivan, are competing in the September 8 primary while Republicans field a crowded field that has yet to consolidate. Fundraising reports through early 2026 show Democratic candidates maintaining clear financial edges, and historical patterns in similar open House races indicate incumbency loss rarely flips a modestly Democratic district absent major national shifts. Traders therefore assign an 86.9 percent implied probability to a Democratic winner, reflecting the district’s partisan baseline and the absence of any recent developments that have altered that positioning.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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