Incumbent Republican Jeff Van Drew holds a commanding position in New Jersey's 2nd Congressional District heading into the 2026 midterm, with traders assigning the GOP a 69.5 percent implied probability of retaining the seat. The district's R+5 partisan voting index and Donald Trump's 13-point margin there in 2024 underscore its structural tilt, reinforced by Van Drew's unopposed June 2 primary and superior fundraising that has produced over $1.3 million in cash on hand. Four Democratic primary contenders, including Tim Alexander and Bayly Winder, remain fragmented without a clear frontrunner or recent polling to demonstrate viability, while nonpartisan analysts rate the race Solid Republican. Absent a broad national shift favoring Democrats by November 3, these factors sustain the current market consensus.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$12,533 거래량
$12,533 거래량
2026.11.03
공화당
70%
민주당
27%
$12,533 거래량
$12,533 거래량
2026.11.03
공화당
$6,084 거래량
70%
민주당
$6,449 거래량
27%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Jeff Van Drew holds a commanding position in New Jersey's 2nd Congressional District heading into the 2026 midterm, with traders assigning the GOP a 69.5 percent implied probability of retaining the seat. The district's R+5 partisan voting index and Donald Trump's 13-point margin there in 2024 underscore its structural tilt, reinforced by Van Drew's unopposed June 2 primary and superior fundraising that has produced over $1.3 million in cash on hand. Four Democratic primary contenders, including Tim Alexander and Bayly Winder, remain fragmented without a clear frontrunner or recent polling to demonstrate viability, while nonpartisan analysts rate the race Solid Republican. Absent a broad national shift favoring Democrats by November 3, these factors sustain the current market consensus.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
거래량
$12,533종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Jeff Van Drew holds a commanding position in New Jersey's 2nd Congressional District heading into the 2026 midterm, with traders assigning the GOP a 69.5 percent implied probability of retaining the seat. The district's R+5 partisan voting index and Donald Trump's 13-point margin there in 2024 underscore its structural tilt, reinforced by Van Drew's unopposed June 2 primary and superior fundraising that has produced over $1.3 million in cash on hand. Four Democratic primary contenders, including Tim Alexander and Bayly Winder, remain fragmented without a clear frontrunner or recent polling to demonstrate viability, while nonpartisan analysts rate the race Solid Republican. Absent a broad national shift favoring Democrats by November 3, these factors sustain the current market consensus.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$12,533종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Jeff Van Drew holds a commanding position in New Jersey's 2nd Congressional District heading into the 2026 midterm, with traders assigning the GOP a 69.5 percent implied probability of retaining the seat. The district's R+5 partisan voting index and Donald Trump's 13-point margin there in 2024 underscore its structural tilt, reinforced by Van Drew's unopposed June 2 primary and superior fundraising that has produced over $1.3 million in cash on hand. Four Democratic primary contenders, including Tim Alexander and Bayly Winder, remain fragmented without a clear frontrunner or recent polling to demonstrate viability, while nonpartisan analysts rate the race Solid Republican. Absent a broad national shift favoring Democrats by November 3, these factors sustain the current market consensus.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문