New York's 12th Congressional District, with its D+33 Cook Partisan Voting Index—the ninth-most Democratic nationwide—continues to anchor trader consensus for a Democratic House election win at 93.5%, reflecting historical lopsided results like Rep. Jerry Nadler's 80% victory in 2024. Nadler's retirement has sparked a competitive Democratic primary on June 23, 2026, where recent polls show Micah Lasher leading Jack Schlossberg amid strong fundraising from top contenders like Alex Bores and George Conway, while the Republican primary features low-funded challengers like Amy Jordan and Caroline Shinkle. This commanding position could face upset via a national Republican midterm wave exploiting the GOP's slim 217-212 House majority, post-primary Democratic scandal, or anomalous turnout shifts in the urban Manhattan stronghold.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$17,171 거래량
$17,171 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
94%
공화당
6%
$17,171 거래량
$17,171 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
$14,681 거래량
94%
공화당
$2,490 거래량
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).New York's 12th Congressional District, with its D+33 Cook Partisan Voting Index—the ninth-most Democratic nationwide—continues to anchor trader consensus for a Democratic House election win at 93.5%, reflecting historical lopsided results like Rep. Jerry Nadler's 80% victory in 2024. Nadler's retirement has sparked a competitive Democratic primary on June 23, 2026, where recent polls show Micah Lasher leading Jack Schlossberg amid strong fundraising from top contenders like Alex Bores and George Conway, while the Republican primary features low-funded challengers like Amy Jordan and Caroline Shinkle. This commanding position could face upset via a national Republican midterm wave exploiting the GOP's slim 217-212 House majority, post-primary Democratic scandal, or anomalous turnout shifts in the urban Manhattan stronghold.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
거래량
$17,171종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).New York's 12th Congressional District, with its D+33 Cook Partisan Voting Index—the ninth-most Democratic nationwide—continues to anchor trader consensus for a Democratic House election win at 93.5%, reflecting historical lopsided results like Rep. Jerry Nadler's 80% victory in 2024. Nadler's retirement has sparked a competitive Democratic primary on June 23, 2026, where recent polls show Micah Lasher leading Jack Schlossberg amid strong fundraising from top contenders like Alex Bores and George Conway, while the Republican primary features low-funded challengers like Amy Jordan and Caroline Shinkle. This commanding position could face upset via a national Republican midterm wave exploiting the GOP's slim 217-212 House majority, post-primary Democratic scandal, or anomalous turnout shifts in the urban Manhattan stronghold.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$17,171종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...New York's 12th Congressional District, with its D+33 Cook Partisan Voting Index—the ninth-most Democratic nationwide—continues to anchor trader consensus for a Democratic House election win at 93.5%, reflecting historical lopsided results like Rep. Jerry Nadler's 80% victory in 2024. Nadler's retirement has sparked a competitive Democratic primary on June 23, 2026, where recent polls show Micah Lasher leading Jack Schlossberg amid strong fundraising from top contenders like Alex Bores and George Conway, while the Republican primary features low-funded challengers like Amy Jordan and Caroline Shinkle. This commanding position could face upset via a national Republican midterm wave exploiting the GOP's slim 217-212 House majority, post-primary Democratic scandal, or anomalous turnout shifts in the urban Manhattan stronghold.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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