New York’s 12th congressional district, covering affluent Manhattan neighborhoods including the Upper East and West Sides, maintains one of the strongest Democratic leans in the country, reflected in the prior incumbent’s 80%+ margins. Jerry Nadler’s retirement has opened the seat, triggering a crowded Democratic primary scheduled for June 23 that features state legislators and other prominent local figures, yet the winner is expected to face only token opposition from Republican Caroline Shinkle and minor-party candidates in November. Recent primary polling shows a fragmented Democratic field with no single frontrunner dominating, while the district’s partisan voting index and consistent turnout patterns sustain trader consensus on the general-election outcome. A late scandal or unforeseen national wave could theoretically alter the trajectory, but structural factors continue to anchor the heavy Democratic advantage.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트NY-12 House Election Winner
NY-12 House Election Winner
$20,778 거래량
$20,778 거래량
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
3%
$20,778 거래량
$20,778 거래량
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
$16,797 거래량
94%
Republican Party
$3,980 거래량
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).New York’s 12th congressional district, covering affluent Manhattan neighborhoods including the Upper East and West Sides, maintains one of the strongest Democratic leans in the country, reflected in the prior incumbent’s 80%+ margins. Jerry Nadler’s retirement has opened the seat, triggering a crowded Democratic primary scheduled for June 23 that features state legislators and other prominent local figures, yet the winner is expected to face only token opposition from Republican Caroline Shinkle and minor-party candidates in November. Recent primary polling shows a fragmented Democratic field with no single frontrunner dominating, while the district’s partisan voting index and consistent turnout patterns sustain trader consensus on the general-election outcome. A late scandal or unforeseen national wave could theoretically alter the trajectory, but structural factors continue to anchor the heavy Democratic advantage.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
거래량
$20,778종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).New York’s 12th congressional district, covering affluent Manhattan neighborhoods including the Upper East and West Sides, maintains one of the strongest Democratic leans in the country, reflected in the prior incumbent’s 80%+ margins. Jerry Nadler’s retirement has opened the seat, triggering a crowded Democratic primary scheduled for June 23 that features state legislators and other prominent local figures, yet the winner is expected to face only token opposition from Republican Caroline Shinkle and minor-party candidates in November. Recent primary polling shows a fragmented Democratic field with no single frontrunner dominating, while the district’s partisan voting index and consistent turnout patterns sustain trader consensus on the general-election outcome. A late scandal or unforeseen national wave could theoretically alter the trajectory, but structural factors continue to anchor the heavy Democratic advantage.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$20,778종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...New York’s 12th congressional district, covering affluent Manhattan neighborhoods including the Upper East and West Sides, maintains one of the strongest Democratic leans in the country, reflected in the prior incumbent’s 80%+ margins. Jerry Nadler’s retirement has opened the seat, triggering a crowded Democratic primary scheduled for June 23 that features state legislators and other prominent local figures, yet the winner is expected to face only token opposition from Republican Caroline Shinkle and minor-party candidates in November. Recent primary polling shows a fragmented Democratic field with no single frontrunner dominating, while the district’s partisan voting index and consistent turnout patterns sustain trader consensus on the general-election outcome. A late scandal or unforeseen national wave could theoretically alter the trajectory, but structural factors continue to anchor the heavy Democratic advantage.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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