Persistent geopolitical tensions from the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict continue to suppress daily ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for roughly 20% of global oil supply, keeping volumes at 5-10% of pre-February 2026 averages amid blockades, selective Iranian routing, and elevated insurance premiums. Recent data show single-digit to low-teen daily crossings, with 38 vessels recorded in the past week versus a normal 60-plus, driving sharp spikes in Brent crude and refined product prices while stranding over 1,500 vessels and pressuring tanker rates. Traders price in modest recovery potential through late May as ceasefire talks advance and Iran meters access for diplomatic leverage, though renewed attacks or tightened U.S. naval enforcement remain swing factors ahead of the May 31 resolution window.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$489,265 거래량
2026.05.31
20+
46%
40+
12%
60+
6%
80+
3%
$489,265 거래량
20+
$115,363 거래량
46%
40+
$123,408 거래량
12%
60+
$68,431 거래량
6%
80+
$182,064 거래량
3%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Persistent geopolitical tensions from the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict continue to suppress daily ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for roughly 20% of global oil supply, keeping volumes at 5-10% of pre-February 2026 averages amid blockades, selective Iranian routing, and elevated insurance premiums. Recent data show single-digit to low-teen daily crossings, with 38 vessels recorded in the past week versus a normal 60-plus, driving sharp spikes in Brent crude and refined product prices while stranding over 1,500 vessels and pressuring tanker rates. Traders price in modest recovery potential through late May as ceasefire talks advance and Iran meters access for diplomatic leverage, though renewed attacks or tightened U.S. naval enforcement remain swing factors ahead of the May 31 resolution window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
마켓 개설일: Apr 29, 2026, 4:59 PM ET
거래량
$489,265종료일
2026.05.31마켓 개설일
Apr 29, 2026, 4:59 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Persistent geopolitical tensions from the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict continue to suppress daily ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for roughly 20% of global oil supply, keeping volumes at 5-10% of pre-February 2026 averages amid blockades, selective Iranian routing, and elevated insurance premiums. Recent data show single-digit to low-teen daily crossings, with 38 vessels recorded in the past week versus a normal 60-plus, driving sharp spikes in Brent crude and refined product prices while stranding over 1,500 vessels and pressuring tanker rates. Traders price in modest recovery potential through late May as ceasefire talks advance and Iran meters access for diplomatic leverage, though renewed attacks or tightened U.S. naval enforcement remain swing factors ahead of the May 31 resolution window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
거래량
$489,265종료일
2026.05.31마켓 개설일
Apr 29, 2026, 4:59 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent geopolitical tensions from the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict continue to suppress daily ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for roughly 20% of global oil supply, keeping volumes at 5-10% of pre-February 2026 averages amid blockades, selective Iranian routing, and elevated insurance premiums. Recent data show single-digit to low-teen daily crossings, with 38 vessels recorded in the past week versus a normal 60-plus, driving sharp spikes in Brent crude and refined product prices while stranding over 1,500 vessels and pressuring tanker rates. Traders price in modest recovery potential through late May as ceasefire talks advance and Iran meters access for diplomatic leverage, though renewed attacks or tightened U.S. naval enforcement remain swing factors ahead of the May 31 resolution window.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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