Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 19°C in Madrid on May 5, 2026, driven by the latest Agencia Estatal de Meteorología (AEMET) forecast specifying a daily maximum of 19°C under partly cloudy skies, light northerly winds at 10 km/h, and zero precipitation risk. This positioning reflects model consensus from ECMWF and GFS runs showing a stable continental air mass with cool advection from the north, keeping conditions below seasonal May averages of 21–23°C. Observations at Adolfo Suárez Madrid–Barajas Airport—the market's resolution source via Wunderground—align with this cap as the afternoon peak passes without intensifying solar heating. Realistic challenges include abrupt wind shifts allowing downslope warming or prolonged clear skies, though hourly guidance indicates negligible odds as evening approaches.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Madrid on May 5?
Highest temperature in Madrid on May 5?
19°C 100.0%
14°C or below <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$114,634 Wol.
$114,634 Wol.
May 5, 2026
14°C or below
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
Yes
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C or higher
No
19°C 100.0%
14°C or below <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$114,634 Wol.
$114,634 Wol.
May 5, 2026
14°C or below
$704 Wol.
No
15°C
$4,494 Wol.
No
16°C
$5,785 Wol.
No
17°C
$7,588 Wol.
No
18°C
$10,393 Wol.
No
19°C
$13,723 Wol.
Yes
20°C
$12,687 Wol.
No
21°C
$12,597 Wol.
No
22°C
$8,065 Wol.
No
23°C
$19,353 Wol.
No
24°C or higher
$19,244 Wol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 19°C in Madrid on May 5, 2026, driven by the latest Agencia Estatal de Meteorología (AEMET) forecast specifying a daily maximum of 19°C under partly cloudy skies, light northerly winds at 10 km/h, and zero precipitation risk. This positioning reflects model consensus from ECMWF and GFS runs showing a stable continental air mass with cool advection from the north, keeping conditions below seasonal May averages of 21–23°C. Observations at Adolfo Suárez Madrid–Barajas Airport—the market's resolution source via Wunderground—align with this cap as the afternoon peak passes without intensifying solar heating. Realistic challenges include abrupt wind shifts allowing downslope warming or prolonged clear skies, though hourly guidance indicates negligible odds as evening approaches.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: May 3, 2026, 12:33 AM ET
Wolumen
$114,634Data zakończenia
May 5, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 3, 2026, 12:33 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 19°C in Madrid on May 5, 2026, driven by the latest Agencia Estatal de Meteorología (AEMET) forecast specifying a daily maximum of 19°C under partly cloudy skies, light northerly winds at 10 km/h, and zero precipitation risk. This positioning reflects model consensus from ECMWF and GFS runs showing a stable continental air mass with cool advection from the north, keeping conditions below seasonal May averages of 21–23°C. Observations at Adolfo Suárez Madrid–Barajas Airport—the market's resolution source via Wunderground—align with this cap as the afternoon peak passes without intensifying solar heating. Realistic challenges include abrupt wind shifts allowing downslope warming or prolonged clear skies, though hourly guidance indicates negligible odds as evening approaches.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$114,634Data zakończenia
May 5, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 3, 2026, 12:33 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 19°C in Madrid on May 5, 2026, driven by the latest Agencia Estatal de Meteorología (AEMET) forecast specifying a daily maximum of 19°C under partly cloudy skies, light northerly winds at 10 km/h, and zero precipitation risk. This positioning reflects model consensus from ECMWF and GFS runs showing a stable continental air mass with cool advection from the north, keeping conditions below seasonal May averages of 21–23°C. Observations at Adolfo Suárez Madrid–Barajas Airport—the market's resolution source via Wunderground—align with this cap as the afternoon peak passes without intensifying solar heating. Realistic challenges include abrupt wind shifts allowing downslope warming or prolonged clear skies, though hourly guidance indicates negligible odds as evening approaches.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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