Current numerical weather prediction consensus from the Japan Meteorological Agency shows a strengthening high-pressure ridge over the Kanto plain, promoting clear skies, light southerly flow, and intense afternoon insolation that favors a Tokyo maximum of 28°C or higher on May 18. This setup underpins the market-implied 73 percent probability for that leading outcome, well above the mid-May climatological average of 22–24°C at the Otemachi station. Model guidance highlights strong daytime heating potential but carries typical uncertainty from subtle variations in cloud cover or ridge position. Traders will watch the next JMA update for any revisions ahead of tomorrow’s resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Tokyo on May 18?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 18?
28°C or higher 76%
27°C 22%
26°C 4.2%
25°C 1.0%
NOWE
$40,976 Wol.
NOWE
$40,976 Wol.
May 18, 2026
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
4%
27°C
22%
28°C or higher
76%
28°C or higher 76%
27°C 22%
26°C 4.2%
25°C 1.0%
NOWE
$40,976 Wol.
NOWE
$40,976 Wol.
May 18, 2026
18°C or below
$3,106 Wol.
<1%
19°C
$1,432 Wol.
<1%
20°C
$1,081 Wol.
<1%
21°C
$1,264 Wol.
<1%
22°C
$1,918 Wol.
<1%
23°C
$2,398 Wol.
<1%
24°C
$15,812 Wol.
<1%
25°C
$3,842 Wol.
1%
26°C
$3,917 Wol.
4%
27°C
$2,418 Wol.
22%
28°C or higher
$3,811 Wol.
76%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current numerical weather prediction consensus from the Japan Meteorological Agency shows a strengthening high-pressure ridge over the Kanto plain, promoting clear skies, light southerly flow, and intense afternoon insolation that favors a Tokyo maximum of 28°C or higher on May 18. This setup underpins the market-implied 73 percent probability for that leading outcome, well above the mid-May climatological average of 22–24°C at the Otemachi station. Model guidance highlights strong daytime heating potential but carries typical uncertainty from subtle variations in cloud cover or ridge position. Traders will watch the next JMA update for any revisions ahead of tomorrow’s resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Wolumen
$40,976Data zakończenia
May 18, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current numerical weather prediction consensus from the Japan Meteorological Agency shows a strengthening high-pressure ridge over the Kanto plain, promoting clear skies, light southerly flow, and intense afternoon insolation that favors a Tokyo maximum of 28°C or higher on May 18. This setup underpins the market-implied 73 percent probability for that leading outcome, well above the mid-May climatological average of 22–24°C at the Otemachi station. Model guidance highlights strong daytime heating potential but carries typical uncertainty from subtle variations in cloud cover or ridge position. Traders will watch the next JMA update for any revisions ahead of tomorrow’s resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$40,976Data zakończenia
May 18, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTCurrent numerical weather prediction consensus from the Japan Meteorological Agency shows a strengthening high-pressure ridge over the Kanto plain, promoting clear skies, light southerly flow, and intense afternoon insolation that favors a Tokyo maximum of 28°C or higher on May 18. This setup underpins the market-implied 73 percent probability for that leading outcome, well above the mid-May climatological average of 22–24°C at the Otemachi station. Model guidance highlights strong daytime heating potential but carries typical uncertainty from subtle variations in cloud cover or ridge position. Traders will watch the next JMA update for any revisions ahead of tomorrow’s resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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