Latest MetService and ensemble model guidance points to a daytime maximum of 14–15 °C for Wellington on May 18, aligning with the market’s 52.5 % and 34.5 % implied probabilities for those exact outcomes. Mid-autumn conditions feature a climatological average high near 14 °C, with persistent southeasterly flow and Cook Strait mixing limiting stronger warming. No significant warm-air advection or clear-sky radiative heating is forecast to push readings into the 16 °C range, while a modest southerly change keeps the risk of falling to 13 °C or below relatively low. Updated model runs overnight have reinforced this narrow 13–15 °C window, tightening trader consensus around the current leading contracts ahead of tomorrow’s resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Wellington on May 18?
Highest temperature in Wellington on May 18?
14°C 53%
15°C 35%
13°C 12.0%
16°C 2.7%
NOWE
$24,333 Wol.
NOWE
$24,333 Wol.
May 18, 2026
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
2%
13°C
12%
14°C
53%
15°C
35%
16°C
3%
17°C
1%
18°C or higher
<1%
14°C 53%
15°C 35%
13°C 12.0%
16°C 2.7%
NOWE
$24,333 Wol.
NOWE
$24,333 Wol.
May 18, 2026
8°C or below
$681 Wol.
<1%
9°C
$485 Wol.
<1%
10°C
$540 Wol.
<1%
11°C
$4,720 Wol.
<1%
12°C
$2,759 Wol.
2%
13°C
$3,481 Wol.
12%
14°C
$3,100 Wol.
53%
15°C
$2,240 Wol.
35%
16°C
$4,240 Wol.
3%
17°C
$1,188 Wol.
1%
18°C or higher
$965 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest MetService and ensemble model guidance points to a daytime maximum of 14–15 °C for Wellington on May 18, aligning with the market’s 52.5 % and 34.5 % implied probabilities for those exact outcomes. Mid-autumn conditions feature a climatological average high near 14 °C, with persistent southeasterly flow and Cook Strait mixing limiting stronger warming. No significant warm-air advection or clear-sky radiative heating is forecast to push readings into the 16 °C range, while a modest southerly change keeps the risk of falling to 13 °C or below relatively low. Updated model runs overnight have reinforced this narrow 13–15 °C window, tightening trader consensus around the current leading contracts ahead of tomorrow’s resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Wolumen
$24,333Data zakończenia
May 18, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest MetService and ensemble model guidance points to a daytime maximum of 14–15 °C for Wellington on May 18, aligning with the market’s 52.5 % and 34.5 % implied probabilities for those exact outcomes. Mid-autumn conditions feature a climatological average high near 14 °C, with persistent southeasterly flow and Cook Strait mixing limiting stronger warming. No significant warm-air advection or clear-sky radiative heating is forecast to push readings into the 16 °C range, while a modest southerly change keeps the risk of falling to 13 °C or below relatively low. Updated model runs overnight have reinforced this narrow 13–15 °C window, tightening trader consensus around the current leading contracts ahead of tomorrow’s resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$24,333Data zakończenia
May 18, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNLatest MetService and ensemble model guidance points to a daytime maximum of 14–15 °C for Wellington on May 18, aligning with the market’s 52.5 % and 34.5 % implied probabilities for those exact outcomes. Mid-autumn conditions feature a climatological average high near 14 °C, with persistent southeasterly flow and Cook Strait mixing limiting stronger warming. No significant warm-air advection or clear-sky radiative heating is forecast to push readings into the 16 °C range, while a modest southerly change keeps the risk of falling to 13 °C or below relatively low. Updated model runs overnight have reinforced this narrow 13–15 °C window, tightening trader consensus around the current leading contracts ahead of tomorrow’s resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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