Recent MetService guidance and numerical weather prediction ensembles from the ECMWF and GFS place Wellington’s May 18 maximum temperature squarely in the 14–15 °C range under fine northerly flow and limited cloud cover. This narrow window arises because autumnal sea-surface temperatures and variable Cook Strait winds can either enhance or suppress daytime mixing by just 1 °C, enough to tip the daily peak between the two leading outcomes. Historical May averages near 14 °C provide the baseline, yet subtle differences in forecast timing of any weak frontal passage keep the 16 °C band competitive at lower probability. Traders are therefore watching the next official MetService update and 12-hour model runs for any shift in afternoon wind or insolation that would reprice the tightly bunched contracts.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Wellington on May 18?
Highest temperature in Wellington on May 18?
14°C 35%
15°C 32%
16°C 16%
13°C 13%
NOWE
NOWE
May 18, 2026
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
1%
10°C
1%
11°C
1%
12°C
5%
13°C
13%
14°C
35%
15°C
32%
16°C
16%
17°C
1%
18°C or higher
1%
14°C 35%
15°C 32%
16°C 16%
13°C 13%
NOWE
NOWE
May 18, 2026
8°C or below
$576 Wol.
<1%
9°C
$118 Wol.
1%
10°C
$65 Wol.
1%
11°C
$65 Wol.
1%
12°C
$90 Wol.
5%
13°C
$5 Wol.
13%
14°C
$114 Wol.
35%
15°C
$59 Wol.
32%
16°C
$18 Wol.
16%
17°C
$2 Wol.
1%
18°C or higher
$15 Wol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent MetService guidance and numerical weather prediction ensembles from the ECMWF and GFS place Wellington’s May 18 maximum temperature squarely in the 14–15 °C range under fine northerly flow and limited cloud cover. This narrow window arises because autumnal sea-surface temperatures and variable Cook Strait winds can either enhance or suppress daytime mixing by just 1 °C, enough to tip the daily peak between the two leading outcomes. Historical May averages near 14 °C provide the baseline, yet subtle differences in forecast timing of any weak frontal passage keep the 16 °C band competitive at lower probability. Traders are therefore watching the next official MetService update and 12-hour model runs for any shift in afternoon wind or insolation that would reprice the tightly bunched contracts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Wolumen
$1,126Data zakończenia
May 18, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent MetService guidance and numerical weather prediction ensembles from the ECMWF and GFS place Wellington’s May 18 maximum temperature squarely in the 14–15 °C range under fine northerly flow and limited cloud cover. This narrow window arises because autumnal sea-surface temperatures and variable Cook Strait winds can either enhance or suppress daytime mixing by just 1 °C, enough to tip the daily peak between the two leading outcomes. Historical May averages near 14 °C provide the baseline, yet subtle differences in forecast timing of any weak frontal passage keep the 16 °C band competitive at lower probability. Traders are therefore watching the next official MetService update and 12-hour model runs for any shift in afternoon wind or insolation that would reprice the tightly bunched contracts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$1,126Data zakończenia
May 18, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNRecent MetService guidance and numerical weather prediction ensembles from the ECMWF and GFS place Wellington’s May 18 maximum temperature squarely in the 14–15 °C range under fine northerly flow and limited cloud cover. This narrow window arises because autumnal sea-surface temperatures and variable Cook Strait winds can either enhance or suppress daytime mixing by just 1 °C, enough to tip the daily peak between the two leading outcomes. Historical May averages near 14 °C provide the baseline, yet subtle differences in forecast timing of any weak frontal passage keep the 16 °C band competitive at lower probability. Traders are therefore watching the next official MetService update and 12-hour model runs for any shift in afternoon wind or insolation that would reprice the tightly bunched contracts.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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