Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a 20°C lowest temperature in Shanghai on May 15, driven by confirmed observational data from official China Meteorological Administration stations, including Shanghai Hongqiao Airport, recording an early-morning minimum of approximately 20–21°C (70°F) under clear skies with minimal cloud cover. This aligns with short-range forecast models like GFS and ECMWF, which projected overnight lows around 19–20°C amid light winds and typical May diurnal warming patterns, preventing further cooling as daytime highs approached 29°C (84°F). Realistic challenges would require an anomalous late-evening radiative cooling event—unlikely given persistent partly sunny conditions and urban heat island effects—but final CMA verification could incorporate any unreported dips at secondary stations.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLowest temperature in Shanghai on May 15?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on May 15?
20°C 100.0%
14°C or below <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$12,323 Wol.
$12,323 Wol.
May 15, 2026
14°C or below
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
Yes
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C or higher
No
20°C 100.0%
14°C or below <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$12,323 Wol.
$12,323 Wol.
May 15, 2026
14°C or below
$966 Wol.
No
15°C
$887 Wol.
No
16°C
$942 Wol.
No
17°C
$889 Wol.
No
18°C
$990 Wol.
No
19°C
$1,997 Wol.
No
20°C
$1,583 Wol.
Yes
21°C
$2,388 Wol.
No
22°C
$449 Wol.
No
23°C
$1,003 Wol.
No
24°C or higher
$230 Wol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a 20°C lowest temperature in Shanghai on May 15, driven by confirmed observational data from official China Meteorological Administration stations, including Shanghai Hongqiao Airport, recording an early-morning minimum of approximately 20–21°C (70°F) under clear skies with minimal cloud cover. This aligns with short-range forecast models like GFS and ECMWF, which projected overnight lows around 19–20°C amid light winds and typical May diurnal warming patterns, preventing further cooling as daytime highs approached 29°C (84°F). Realistic challenges would require an anomalous late-evening radiative cooling event—unlikely given persistent partly sunny conditions and urban heat island effects—but final CMA verification could incorporate any unreported dips at secondary stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ET
Wolumen
$12,323Data zakończenia
May 15, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a 20°C lowest temperature in Shanghai on May 15, driven by confirmed observational data from official China Meteorological Administration stations, including Shanghai Hongqiao Airport, recording an early-morning minimum of approximately 20–21°C (70°F) under clear skies with minimal cloud cover. This aligns with short-range forecast models like GFS and ECMWF, which projected overnight lows around 19–20°C amid light winds and typical May diurnal warming patterns, preventing further cooling as daytime highs approached 29°C (84°F). Realistic challenges would require an anomalous late-evening radiative cooling event—unlikely given persistent partly sunny conditions and urban heat island effects—but final CMA verification could incorporate any unreported dips at secondary stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$12,323Data zakończenia
May 15, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a 20°C lowest temperature in Shanghai on May 15, driven by confirmed observational data from official China Meteorological Administration stations, including Shanghai Hongqiao Airport, recording an early-morning minimum of approximately 20–21°C (70°F) under clear skies with minimal cloud cover. This aligns with short-range forecast models like GFS and ECMWF, which projected overnight lows around 19–20°C amid light winds and typical May diurnal warming patterns, preventing further cooling as daytime highs approached 29°C (84°F). Realistic challenges would require an anomalous late-evening radiative cooling event—unlikely given persistent partly sunny conditions and urban heat island effects—but final CMA verification could incorporate any unreported dips at secondary stations.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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