Giorgia Meloni's right-wing coalition government maintains a solid parliamentary majority in Italy, enabling it to weather the March 2026 constitutional referendum defeat on judicial reforms without triggering a no-confidence vote or snap election. Recent cabinet adjustments and minister resignations have been contained through internal rotations rather than broader instability, and Meloni has publicly reaffirmed her commitment to completing the full five-year term ahead of the scheduled 2027 general election. With only weeks remaining until the June 30 resolution date, the absence of imminent legislative crises or coalition fractures underpins traders' strong consensus that she will remain prime minister. Even so, an unexpected health event, major scandal, or sudden parliamentary realignment could still shift the outcome in this narrow window.