Traders see little basis for Donald Trump to step down before the end of 2026, given the absence of public statements, health disclosures, or institutional pressures that historically precede presidential resignations. With his term extending into 2029, the market reflects the strong precedent that sitting presidents rarely exit early absent acute crises such as debilitating illness, criminal conviction with Senate removal, or sustained bipartisan calls for departure. Recent developments show continued engagement in executive actions, legislative negotiations, and public appearances without signals of withdrawal. Low-probability shifts could still arise from sudden medical events, major legal rulings, or unexpected coalition breakdowns in Congress that intensify accountability demands.