Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 64-65°F in San Francisco on May 13, driven by verified observational data from the Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) at San Francisco International Airport (KSFO), the market's resolution source via Weather Underground and National Weather Service records. Cool marine air persisted under a persistent stratus layer typical of "May Gray" conditions, with onshore winds limiting daytime heating and keeping peaks in this range—consistent with May climatology averaging 65-68°F highs amid upwelling of chilly Pacific waters. Realistic challenges would require a rare post hoc data revision from NOAA or NWS confirming sensor anomalies or overlooked peak readings above 66°F, though such corrections are infrequent for established ASOS metrics.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em São Francisco no dia 13 de maio?
64-65°F 100.0%
47°F ou menos <1%
48-49°F <1%
50-51°F <1%
$53,832 Vol.
$53,832 Vol.
47°F ou menos
Não
48-49°F
Não
50-51°F
Não
52-53°F
Não
54-55°F
Não
56-57°F
Não
58-59°F
Não
60-61°F
Não
62-63°F
Não
64-65°F
Sim
66°F ou mais
Não
64-65°F 100.0%
47°F ou menos <1%
48-49°F <1%
50-51°F <1%
$53,832 Vol.
$53,832 Vol.
47°F ou menos
Não
48-49°F
Não
50-51°F
Não
52-53°F
Não
54-55°F
Não
56-57°F
Não
58-59°F
Não
60-61°F
Não
62-63°F
Não
64-65°F
Sim
66°F ou mais
Não
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: May 11, 2026, 12:11 AM ET
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 64-65°F in San Francisco on May 13, driven by verified observational data from the Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) at San Francisco International Airport (KSFO), the market's resolution source via Weather Underground and National Weather Service records. Cool marine air persisted under a persistent stratus layer typical of "May Gray" conditions, with onshore winds limiting daytime heating and keeping peaks in this range—consistent with May climatology averaging 65-68°F highs amid upwelling of chilly Pacific waters. Realistic challenges would require a rare post hoc data revision from NOAA or NWS confirming sensor anomalies or overlooked peak readings above 66°F, though such corrections are infrequent for established ASOS metrics.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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