Incumbent Karen Bass secured a plurality of 34.3% in the June 2, 2026 nonpartisan primary, ahead of Nithya Raman at 29.0% and Spencer Pratt at 25.5%, producing a roughly 5.3-point margin over the second-place finisher. Late-counted mail ballots shifted Raman past Pratt into the runoff slot, but Bass maintained a steady lead from early returns through final tallies. Trader pricing in the 5–10% bin reflects these certified primary results and the limited remaining uncertainty around minor adjustments during official certification. A recount or tabulation error large enough to push the margin below 5% or above 10% remains possible in principle but would require substantial changes to already-reported vote totals.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoLA Mayoral Election: 1st Round Margin of Victory?
LA Mayoral Election: 1st Round Margin of Victory?
Bass 5–10% 94.3%
Bass 0–5% 2.4%
Bass 10–15% <1%
Bass 15%+ <1%
$207,065 Vol.
$207,065 Vol.
2 jun 2026
Bass 0–5%
2%
Bass 5–10%
94%
Bass 10–15%
1%
Bass 15%+
<1%
Pratt Wins
<1%
Raman Wins
<1%
Other
<1%
Bass 5–10% 94.3%
Bass 0–5% 2.4%
Bass 10–15% <1%
Bass 15%+ <1%
$207,065 Vol.
$207,065 Vol.
2 jun 2026
Bass 0–5%
$42,695 Vol.
2%
Bass 5–10%
$50,867 Vol.
94%
Bass 10–15%
$31,866 Vol.
1%
Bass 15%+
$11,297 Vol.
<1%
Pratt Wins
$36,150 Vol.
<1%
Raman Wins
$22,186 Vol.
<1%
Other
$12,004 Vol.
<1%
The first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the City and County of Los Angeles.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Incumbent Karen Bass secured a plurality of 34.3% in the June 2, 2026 nonpartisan primary, ahead of Nithya Raman at 29.0% and Spencer Pratt at 25.5%, producing a roughly 5.3-point margin over the second-place finisher. Late-counted mail ballots shifted Raman past Pratt into the runoff slot, but Bass maintained a steady lead from early returns through final tallies. Trader pricing in the 5–10% bin reflects these certified primary results and the limited remaining uncertainty around minor adjustments during official certification. A recount or tabulation error large enough to push the margin below 5% or above 10% remains possible in principle but would require substantial changes to already-reported vote totals.
The first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the City and County of Los Angeles.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the City and County of Los Angeles.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Mercado Aberto: May 15, 2026, 3:02 PM ET
Volume
$207,065Data de Término
2 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
May 15, 2026, 3:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the City and County of Los Angeles.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Incumbent Karen Bass secured a plurality of 34.3% in the June 2, 2026 nonpartisan primary, ahead of Nithya Raman at 29.0% and Spencer Pratt at 25.5%, producing a roughly 5.3-point margin over the second-place finisher. Late-counted mail ballots shifted Raman past Pratt into the runoff slot, but Bass maintained a steady lead from early returns through final tallies. Trader pricing in the 5–10% bin reflects these certified primary results and the limited remaining uncertainty around minor adjustments during official certification. A recount or tabulation error large enough to push the margin below 5% or above 10% remains possible in principle but would require substantial changes to already-reported vote totals.
The first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the City and County of Los Angeles.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the City and County of Los Angeles.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$207,065Data de Término
2 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
May 15, 2026, 3:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Karen Bass secured a plurality of 34.3% in the June 2, 2026 nonpartisan primary, ahead of Nithya Raman at 29.0% and Spencer Pratt at 25.5%, producing a roughly 5.3-point margin over the second-place finisher. Late-counted mail ballots shifted Raman past Pratt into the runoff slot, but Bass maintained a steady lead from early returns through final tallies. Trader pricing in the 5–10% bin reflects these certified primary results and the limited remaining uncertainty around minor adjustments during official certification. A recount or tabulation error large enough to push the margin below 5% or above 10% remains possible in principle but would require substantial changes to already-reported vote totals.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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