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icon for Lai Ching-te destituída até 30 de junho?
Geopolítica·Taiwan

Lai Ching-te destituída até 30 de junho?

icon for Lai Ching-te destituída até 30 de junho?
Geopolítica·Taiwan

Lai Ching-te destituída até 30 de junho?

jun 30

jun 30

Sim

2% chance
Polymarket

$618,895 Vol.

Sim

2% chance
Polymarket

$618,895 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, is formally impeached by the Legislative Yuan by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.Trader consensus on a 98% "No" for President Lai Ching-te's impeachment by June 30 reflects the opposition's insurmountable structural barrier in the Legislative Yuan, where KMT and TPP hold 60 seats but require a three-fourths supermajority of 85 votes to pass an impeachment resolution under the ROC Constitution. The motion cleared initiation in December 2025 with a simple majority, prompting review hearings—including recent sessions on May 13-14 where Lai was absent—but the upcoming May 19 roll-call vote is expected to fail decisively absent DPP defections. Subsequent Control Yuan concurrence adds further hurdles. Only extraordinary developments like a major scandal triggering cross-party support could shift odds, though historical precedent shows no such shifts in Taiwan's polarized politics.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, is formally impeached by the Legislative Yuan by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Volume
$618,895
Data de Término
30 jun 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jan 2, 2026, 8:15 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, is formally impeached by the Legislative Yuan by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, is formally impeached by the Legislative Yuan by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.Trader consensus on a 98% "No" for President Lai Ching-te's impeachment by June 30 reflects the opposition's insurmountable structural barrier in the Legislative Yuan, where KMT and TPP hold 60 seats but require a three-fourths supermajority of 85 votes to pass an impeachment resolution under the ROC Constitution. The motion cleared initiation in December 2025 with a simple majority, prompting review hearings—including recent sessions on May 13-14 where Lai was absent—but the upcoming May 19 roll-call vote is expected to fail decisively absent DPP defections. Subsequent Control Yuan concurrence adds further hurdles. Only extraordinary developments like a major scandal triggering cross-party support could shift odds, though historical precedent shows no such shifts in Taiwan's polarized politics.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, is formally impeached by the Legislative Yuan by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Volume
$618,895
Data de Término
30 jun 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jan 2, 2026, 8:15 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, is formally impeached by the Legislative Yuan by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Lai Ching-te destituída até 30 de junho?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Lai Ching-te será destituído até 30 de junho?" at 2%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 2¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 2% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Lai Ching-te destituída até 30 de junho?" has generated $618.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 2, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Lai Ching-te destituída até 30 de junho?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "Lai Ching-te destituída até 30 de junho?" is "Lai Ching-te será destituído até 30 de junho?" at just 2%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "Lai Ching-te destituída até 30 de junho?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.