Recent ensemble forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and global models highlight high uncertainty for Guangzhou’s May 17 peak temperature, with consensus clustering near 28°C. Variable cloud cover and possible patchy rain are expected to limit daytime solar heating across the Pearl River Delta, keeping maxima from reaching typical May averages near 29–30°C. This forecast spread explains why trader consensus assigns the highest implied probabilities to 28°C and 29°C, while placing modest weight on 27°C if convection strengthens earlier. Updated model runs overnight and morning observations at Baiyun Airport will refine the final resolution range.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая высокая температура в Гуанчжоу 17 мая?
28°C 38%
29°C 31%
27°C 18%
26°C 10%
22°C или ниже
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
2%
26°C
10%
27°C
18%
28°C
38%
29°C
31%
30°C
4%
31°C
2%
32°C или выше
1%
28°C 38%
29°C 31%
27°C 18%
26°C 10%
22°C или ниже
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
2%
26°C
10%
27°C
18%
28°C
38%
29°C
31%
30°C
4%
31°C
2%
32°C или выше
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: May 15, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Источник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGGThe resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Источник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGGRecent ensemble forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and global models highlight high uncertainty for Guangzhou’s May 17 peak temperature, with consensus clustering near 28°C. Variable cloud cover and possible patchy rain are expected to limit daytime solar heating across the Pearl River Delta, keeping maxima from reaching typical May averages near 29–30°C. This forecast spread explains why trader consensus assigns the highest implied probabilities to 28°C and 29°C, while placing modest weight on 27°C if convection strengthens earlier. Updated model runs overnight and morning observations at Baiyun Airport will refine the final resolution range.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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