Recent forecast consensus from major models such as ECMWF and GFS, reinforced by National Center for Meteorology guidance, shows persistent high pressure and strong solar insolation over the Red Sea coastal plain driving Jeddah’s daytime peak to 39–41°C on May 16. This aligns with the city’s May climatology, where historical maxima frequently reach the upper 30s amid light northwesterly winds that limit sea-breeze moderation. The market’s 100% implied probability for 39°C or higher reflects this tight model agreement and the absence of cooling factors like significant cloud cover or stronger onshore flow. Minor downward revisions remain possible if afternoon convection develops earlier than expected, though current ensemble spreads place such outcomes well below 1%.