Latest European model consensus, including runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, positions Madrid’s daytime maximum near 22°C on May 17 under a stable high-pressure ridge that promotes clear skies, light northerly flow, and moderate surface heating. This aligns closely with mid-May climatological averages of 22–24°C for central Spain while recent overnight radiative cooling and modest moisture advection have kept peaks from exceeding that narrow band. The 56% market-implied probability on 22°C and 27.5% on 23°C reflect traders’ assessment of this tight uncertainty range ahead of final AEMET observations at Adolfo Suárez Madrid–Barajas Airport. Any late-afternoon convective development or slight wind shift could nudge the outcome toward the adjacent bins.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая высокая температура в Мадриде 17 мая?
22°C 55%
23°C 25%
21°C 15%
24°C 3.3%
$27,002 Объем
$27,002 Объем
17°C or below
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
2%
21°C
15%
22°C
55%
23°C
25%
24°C
3%
25°C
1%
26°C
<1%
27°C or higher
<1%
22°C 55%
23°C 25%
21°C 15%
24°C 3.3%
$27,002 Объем
$27,002 Объем
17°C or below
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
2%
21°C
15%
22°C
55%
23°C
25%
24°C
3%
25°C
1%
26°C
<1%
27°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Источник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDThe resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Источник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDLatest European model consensus, including runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, positions Madrid’s daytime maximum near 22°C on May 17 under a stable high-pressure ridge that promotes clear skies, light northerly flow, and moderate surface heating. This aligns closely with mid-May climatological averages of 22–24°C for central Spain while recent overnight radiative cooling and modest moisture advection have kept peaks from exceeding that narrow band. The 56% market-implied probability on 22°C and 27.5% on 23°C reflect traders’ assessment of this tight uncertainty range ahead of final AEMET observations at Adolfo Suárez Madrid–Barajas Airport. Any late-afternoon convective development or slight wind shift could nudge the outcome toward the adjacent bins.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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