Latest forecast models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and National Weather Services point to a mild spring day in Milan on May 18, with the daily maximum temperature most likely settling between 19°C and 21°C amid variable high pressure and light southerly flow. This distribution explains why traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 20°C and 21°C, reflecting the narrow window between modest daytime warming and potential afternoon cloud cover that could cap readings. Historical mid-May averages near 20–22°C provide context, yet short-term variability in the Po Valley’s boundary layer keeps lower and higher outcomes viable if steering patterns shift overnight. Updated model runs expected later today will refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.