Current forecast models from Météo-France and European centers indicate a daily maximum near 16°C in Paris, driven by persistent cloud cover, light winds, and limited solar heating that suppress warming below the mid-May climatological average of 18°C. Updated runs this morning continue to cluster the most probable range at 15–17°C, with afternoon peaks expected in the mid-teens before any marginal late-day clearing. This strong consensus underpins the 92% market-implied probability for 16°C. A brief period of increased insolation or a slightly warmer air mass could realistically push readings to 17°C or higher, while further stabilization of the cloud deck would reinforce the lower outcome.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая высокая температура в Париже 17 мая?
16°C 85%
17°C 10%
18°C 3.0%
19°C <1%
$100,761 Объем
$100,761 Объем
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
85%
17°C
10%
18°C
3%
19°C
1%
20°C or higher
<1%
16°C 85%
17°C 10%
18°C 3.0%
19°C <1%
$100,761 Объем
$100,761 Объем
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
85%
17°C
10%
18°C
3%
19°C
1%
20°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: May 15, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Источник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBThe resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Источник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBCurrent forecast models from Météo-France and European centers indicate a daily maximum near 16°C in Paris, driven by persistent cloud cover, light winds, and limited solar heating that suppress warming below the mid-May climatological average of 18°C. Updated runs this morning continue to cluster the most probable range at 15–17°C, with afternoon peaks expected in the mid-teens before any marginal late-day clearing. This strong consensus underpins the 92% market-implied probability for 16°C. A brief period of increased insolation or a slightly warmer air mass could realistically push readings to 17°C or higher, while further stabilization of the cloud deck would reinforce the lower outcome.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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