Recent forecast guidance from Météo-France and ensemble models shows Paris under a lingering maritime air mass with extensive cloud cover and light west-southwest winds, limiting daytime heating and pointing to a daily maximum near 16°C. This aligns with the market’s leading 16°C outcome at 65.5 percent implied probability, as afternoon temperatures are expected to peak in the mid-teens Celsius before any brief clearing allows slight additional warming. Historical May climatology places average highs around 18°C, but persistent unstable conditions earlier this week have kept readings suppressed. Updated model runs this morning continue to favor 15–17°C as the most probable range, with resolution hinging on the precise timing of any late-day sun breaks.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая высокая температура в Париже 17 мая?
16°C 79%
17°C 18%
18°C 3.0%
19°C <1%
$89,374 Объем
$89,374 Объем
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
79%
17°C
18%
18°C
3%
19°C
<1%
20°C or higher
<1%
16°C 79%
17°C 18%
18°C 3.0%
19°C <1%
$89,374 Объем
$89,374 Объем
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
79%
17°C
18%
18°C
3%
19°C
<1%
20°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: May 15, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Источник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBThe resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Источник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBRecent forecast guidance from Météo-France and ensemble models shows Paris under a lingering maritime air mass with extensive cloud cover and light west-southwest winds, limiting daytime heating and pointing to a daily maximum near 16°C. This aligns with the market’s leading 16°C outcome at 65.5 percent implied probability, as afternoon temperatures are expected to peak in the mid-teens Celsius before any brief clearing allows slight additional warming. Historical May climatology places average highs around 18°C, but persistent unstable conditions earlier this week have kept readings suppressed. Updated model runs this morning continue to favor 15–17°C as the most probable range, with resolution hinging on the precise timing of any late-day sun breaks.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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