Karen Bass secured approximately 34.3% in the June 2, 2026 nonpartisan primary, outpacing Nithya Raman by roughly five points and advancing to the November runoff alongside her. Trader consensus heavily favors the 5–10% margin outcome because final tabulated results across more than 95% of ballots have remained stable in that range despite mail ballot processing and late counts that narrowed Pratt’s earlier edge. Bass benefited from incumbency and name recognition even amid criticism over wildfire response and budget shortfalls, while Raman consolidated enough progressive support to finish second. A shift outside 5–10% would require an unprecedented swing in the remaining ballots or successful legal challenge to the certified totals, both viewed as remote given the current lead and historical certification patterns in Los Angeles County elections.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоLA Mayoral Election: 1st Round Margin of Victory?
LA Mayoral Election: 1st Round Margin of Victory?
Bass 5–10% 94.3%
Bass 0–5% 2.4%
Bass 10–15% <1%
Bass 15%+ <1%
$207,065 Объем
$207,065 Объем
2 июн. 2026 г.
Bass 0–5%
2%
Bass 5–10%
94%
Bass 10–15%
1%
Bass 15%+
<1%
Pratt Wins
<1%
Raman Wins
<1%
Other
<1%
Bass 5–10% 94.3%
Bass 0–5% 2.4%
Bass 10–15% <1%
Bass 15%+ <1%
$207,065 Объем
$207,065 Объем
2 июн. 2026 г.
Bass 0–5%
$42,695 Объем
2%
Bass 5–10%
$50,867 Объем
94%
Bass 10–15%
$31,866 Объем
1%
Bass 15%+
$11,297 Объем
<1%
Pratt Wins
$36,150 Объем
<1%
Raman Wins
$22,186 Объем
<1%
Other
$12,004 Объем
<1%
The first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the City and County of Los Angeles.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Karen Bass secured approximately 34.3% in the June 2, 2026 nonpartisan primary, outpacing Nithya Raman by roughly five points and advancing to the November runoff alongside her. Trader consensus heavily favors the 5–10% margin outcome because final tabulated results across more than 95% of ballots have remained stable in that range despite mail ballot processing and late counts that narrowed Pratt’s earlier edge. Bass benefited from incumbency and name recognition even amid criticism over wildfire response and budget shortfalls, while Raman consolidated enough progressive support to finish second. A shift outside 5–10% would require an unprecedented swing in the remaining ballots or successful legal challenge to the certified totals, both viewed as remote given the current lead and historical certification patterns in Los Angeles County elections.
The first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the City and County of Los Angeles.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the City and County of Los Angeles.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Открытие рынка: May 15, 2026, 3:02 PM ET
Объем
$207,065Дата окончания
2 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 15, 2026, 3:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the City and County of Los Angeles.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Karen Bass secured approximately 34.3% in the June 2, 2026 nonpartisan primary, outpacing Nithya Raman by roughly five points and advancing to the November runoff alongside her. Trader consensus heavily favors the 5–10% margin outcome because final tabulated results across more than 95% of ballots have remained stable in that range despite mail ballot processing and late counts that narrowed Pratt’s earlier edge. Bass benefited from incumbency and name recognition even amid criticism over wildfire response and budget shortfalls, while Raman consolidated enough progressive support to finish second. A shift outside 5–10% would require an unprecedented swing in the remaining ballots or successful legal challenge to the certified totals, both viewed as remote given the current lead and historical certification patterns in Los Angeles County elections.
The first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the City and County of Los Angeles.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the City and County of Los Angeles.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Объем
$207,065Дата окончания
2 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 15, 2026, 3:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Karen Bass secured approximately 34.3% in the June 2, 2026 nonpartisan primary, outpacing Nithya Raman by roughly five points and advancing to the November runoff alongside her. Trader consensus heavily favors the 5–10% margin outcome because final tabulated results across more than 95% of ballots have remained stable in that range despite mail ballot processing and late counts that narrowed Pratt’s earlier edge. Bass benefited from incumbency and name recognition even amid criticism over wildfire response and budget shortfalls, while Raman consolidated enough progressive support to finish second. A shift outside 5–10% would require an unprecedented swing in the remaining ballots or successful legal challenge to the certified totals, both viewed as remote given the current lead and historical certification patterns in Los Angeles County elections.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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