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Выборы·Ближний Восток

Победитель парламентских выборов в Ливане

icon for Победитель парламентских выборов в Ливане
Выборы·Ближний Восток

Победитель парламентских выборов в Ливане

Движение Амаль (Амаль) 5.7%

Ливанские силы (ЛС) 3.1%

Свободное патриотическое движение (СПД) 1.7%

Партия Такаддом 1.7%

Polymarket

$523,903 Объем

Движение Амаль (Амаль) 5.7%

Ливанские силы (ЛС) 3.1%

Свободное патриотическое движение (СПД) 1.7%

Партия Такаддом 1.7%

Polymarket

$523,903 Объем

Движение Амаль (Амаль)

$53,592 Объем

6%

Ливанские силы (ЛС)

$157,880 Объем

3%

Свободное патриотическое движение (СПД)

$73,423 Объем

2%

Партия Такаддом

$5,444 Объем

2%

Партия Катаиб (Катаиб)

$3,996 Объем

1%

Народная Насеристская организация (ПНО)

$3,487 Объем

1%

Исламская группа (ИГ)

$3,391 Объем

1%

Национальная либеральная партия (НЛП)

$4,059 Объем

1%

ReLebanon

$2,715 Объем

1%

Партия Союз (ПС)

$3,000 Объем

1%

Ассоциация исламских благотворительных проектов (ICPA)

$3,648 Объем

1%

Альянс Ватани (Watani)

$3,671 Объем

1%

Хезболла (Хезб)

$43,670 Объем

1%

Движение Марада (MM)

$2,927 Объем

1%

Партия национального диалога (ПНД)

$41,888 Объем

<1%

Армянская революционная федерация (АРФ)

$5,112 Объем

<1%

Партия Мада (Mada)

$24,363 Объем

<1%

Лана – Социал-демократическая партия (Лана)

$4,440 Объем

<1%

Арабская социалистическая партия Баас в Ливане (Баас)

$6,562 Объем

<1%

Хатт Ахмар

$3,329 Объем

<1%

Прогрессивно-социалистическая партия (ПСП)

$47,456 Объем

<1%

Движение независимости (ДН)

$3,135 Объем

<1%

Движение достоинства (ДД)

$22,716 Объем

<1%

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Lebanese traders price a highly fragmented field for the parliamentary election winner, with Amal Movement's 5.5% implied probability edging ahead amid entrenched Shia sectarian support under Speaker Nabih Berri, despite widespread dissatisfaction. Parliament's March 2026 vote (76-41) to postpone the May balloting by two years—citing the Israel-Hezbollah conflict, mass displacement, and humanitarian crisis—has amplified uncertainty, pushing all odds below 6% as no clear frontrunner emerges in the proportional representation system. Lebanese Forces holds second at 3.1% on strong Christian anti-Hezbollah backing, while Taqaddom trails among Druze voters. Consolidation could hinge on post-ceasefire alliances, Saad Hariri's potential Future Movement revival, Shia challengers to Amal-Hezbollah dominance, or snap election triggers before 2028.

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).

Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Объем
$523,903
Дата окончания
31 мая 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Lebanese traders price a highly fragmented field for the parliamentary election winner, with Amal Movement's 5.5% implied probability edging ahead amid entrenched Shia sectarian support under Speaker Nabih Berri, despite widespread dissatisfaction. Parliament's March 2026 vote (76-41) to postpone the May balloting by two years—citing the Israel-Hezbollah conflict, mass displacement, and humanitarian crisis—has amplified uncertainty, pushing all odds below 6% as no clear frontrunner emerges in the proportional representation system. Lebanese Forces holds second at 3.1% on strong Christian anti-Hezbollah backing, while Taqaddom trails among Druze voters. Consolidation could hinge on post-ceasefire alliances, Saad Hariri's potential Future Movement revival, Shia challengers to Amal-Hezbollah dominance, or snap election triggers before 2028.

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).

Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Объем
$523,903
Дата окончания
31 мая 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.

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Часто задаваемые вопросы

«Победитель парламентских выборов в Ливане» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 23 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «Движение Амаль (Амаль)» с 6%, за ним следует «Ливанские силы (ЛС)» с 3%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 6¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 6%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

На сегодняшний день «Победитель парламентских выборов в Ливане» сгенерировал общий объём торгов $523.9K с момента запуска рынка Jan 6, 2026. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.

Чтобы торговать на «Победитель парламентских выборов в Ливане», просмотри 23 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.

Это очень открытый рынок. Текущий лидер для «Победитель парламентских выборов в Ливане» — «Движение Амаль (Амаль)» всего с 6%, а «Ливанские силы (ЛС)» близко позади с 3%. Поскольку ни один исход не доминирует, трейдеры видят это как крайне неопределённую ситуацию, что может создавать уникальные торговые возможности. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени, так что добавь эту страницу в закладки.

Правила разрешения «Победитель парламентских выборов в Ливане» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.