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Выборы·Ближний Восток

Победитель парламентских выборов в Ливане

icon for Победитель парламентских выборов в Ливане
Выборы·Ближний Восток

Победитель парламентских выборов в Ливане

Движение Амаль (Амаль) 2.3%

Ассоциация исламских благотворительных проектов (ICPA) <1%

Ливанские силы (ЛС) <1%

Партия национального диалога (ПНД) <1%

Polymarket

$666,071 Объем

Движение Амаль (Амаль) 2.3%

Ассоциация исламских благотворительных проектов (ICPA) <1%

Ливанские силы (ЛС) <1%

Партия национального диалога (ПНД) <1%

Polymarket

$666,071 Объем

Движение Амаль (Амаль)

$63,834 Объем

2%

Ассоциация исламских благотворительных проектов (ICPA)

$9,181 Объем

<1%

Ливанские силы (ЛС)

$167,737 Объем

<1%

Партия национального диалога (ПНД)

$46,764 Объем

<1%

Свободное патриотическое движение (СПД)

$79,513 Объем

<1%

Партия Такаддом

$11,771 Объем

<1%

Лана – Социал-демократическая партия (Лана)

$13,761 Объем

<1%

Альянс Ватани (Watani)

$7,539 Объем

<1%

Хезболла (Хезб)

$52,900 Объем

<1%

Партия Катаиб (Катаиб)

$7,370 Объем

<1%

Движение Марада (MM)

$8,683 Объем

<1%

Исламская группа (ИГ)

$8,631 Объем

<1%

Арабская социалистическая партия Баас в Ливане (Баас)

$10,710 Объем

<1%

Хатт Ахмар

$9,477 Объем

<1%

Прогрессивно-социалистическая партия (ПСП)

$55,015 Объем

<1%

Движение независимости (ДН)

$8,894 Объем

<1%

Национальная либеральная партия (НЛП)

$9,599 Объем

<1%

Партия Мада (Mada)

$28,113 Объем

<1%

Движение достоинства (ДД)

$29,195 Объем

<1%

ReLebanon

$9,808 Объем

<1%

Армянская революционная федерация (АРФ)

$10,552 Объем

<1%

Партия Союз (ПС)

$7,759 Объем

<1%

Народная Насеристская организация (ПНО)

$9,264 Объем

<1%

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.The postponement of Lebanon’s parliamentary elections—originally set for May 2026 but extended by two years amid renewed conflict with Israel—has left the contest wide open, with no party holding meaningful implied probability. Ongoing hostilities, displacement in southern Lebanon, and economic pressures have disrupted campaigning, alliance-building, and voter registration, while municipal results from 2025 showed Amal-Hezbollah lists securing many uncontested victories in Shia areas. This dynamic favors established Shiite alliances in the medium term but leaves room for shifts if reconstruction aid, disarmament talks, or opposition coordination among groups like the Lebanese Forces gain traction before any rescheduled vote. Trader consensus reflects these structural barriers and timeline uncertainty rather than current polling or fixed frontrunners.

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).

Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Объем
$666,071
Дата окончания
31 мая 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.The postponement of Lebanon’s parliamentary elections—originally set for May 2026 but extended by two years amid renewed conflict with Israel—has left the contest wide open, with no party holding meaningful implied probability. Ongoing hostilities, displacement in southern Lebanon, and economic pressures have disrupted campaigning, alliance-building, and voter registration, while municipal results from 2025 showed Amal-Hezbollah lists securing many uncontested victories in Shia areas. This dynamic favors established Shiite alliances in the medium term but leaves room for shifts if reconstruction aid, disarmament talks, or opposition coordination among groups like the Lebanese Forces gain traction before any rescheduled vote. Trader consensus reflects these structural barriers and timeline uncertainty rather than current polling or fixed frontrunners.

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).

Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Объем
$666,071
Дата окончания
31 мая 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.

Связанные

icon for Will PAM win the next Moroccan legislative elections?

Will PAM win the next Moroccan legislative elections?

49%
icon for Выиграет ли «Единая Россия» (ЕР) наибольшее количество мест на следующих выборах в Государственную думу?

Выиграет ли «Единая Россия» (ЕР) наибольшее количество мест на следующих выборах в Государственную думу?

98%
Да
icon for Will PI get the second-most number of seats in the next Moroccan legislative elections?

Will PI get the second-most number of seats in the next Moroccan legislative elections?

28%

Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.

Часто задаваемые вопросы

«Победитель парламентских выборов в Ливане» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 23 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «Движение Амаль (Амаль)» с 2%, за ним следует «Ассоциация исламских благотворительных проектов (ICPA)» с 0%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 2¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 2%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

На сегодняшний день «Победитель парламентских выборов в Ливане» сгенерировал общий объём торгов $666.1K с момента запуска рынка Jan 6, 2026. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.

Чтобы торговать на «Победитель парламентских выборов в Ливане», просмотри 23 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.

Это очень открытый рынок. Текущий лидер для «Победитель парламентских выборов в Ливане» — «Движение Амаль (Амаль)» всего с 2%, а «Ассоциация исламских благотворительных проектов (ICPA)» близко позади с 0%. Поскольку ни один исход не доминирует, трейдеры видят это как крайне неопределённую ситуацию, что может создавать уникальные торговые возможности. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени, так что добавь эту страницу в закладки.

Правила разрешения «Победитель парламентских выборов в Ливане» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.