Morocco's September 2026 legislative elections feature a fragmented field where RNI leads as the incumbent governing party under new leadership, leaving second place highly contested among PAM, Istiqlal, and smaller parties. Cross-party preparatory talks, increased public campaign funding, and roughly four million first-time voters have heightened uncertainty, while limited recent polling and party leadership transitions maintain tight implied probabilities near 50 percent. Economic pressures, youth registration rates, and coalition realignments such as potential shifts involving figures like Fouzi Lekjaa could shift momentum. Late campaign developments or turnout patterns in urban versus rural districts may create separation among contenders before the September 23 vote.