Current forecast ensembles from the ECMWF and GFS models converge tightly on an overnight minimum near 19°C for Shanghai on May 17, underpinning the 99.4% market-implied probability for that exact outcome. This alignment reflects typical mid-May subtropical conditions over the Yangtze River Delta, where maritime moderation and urban heat-island effects at Pudong routinely stabilize minimum temperatures within a narrow 17–21°C climatological range. Resolution hinges on official China Meteorological Administration observations at the primary Shanghai station. An unexpected frontal passage or stronger-than-anticipated northerly flow could shift the low to 18°C or below, while a shallower boundary layer or persistent southwesterly return flow might keep readings at or above 20°C—scenarios that remain low-probability given the latest model guidance.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая низкая температура в Шанхае 17 мая?
19°C 99.4%
20°C <1%
18°C <1%
16°C <1%
$11,123 Объем
$11,123 Объем
14°C или ниже
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
1%
19°C
99%
20°C
1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C или выше
<1%
19°C 99.4%
20°C <1%
18°C <1%
16°C <1%
$11,123 Объем
$11,123 Объем
14°C или ниже
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
1%
19°C
99%
20°C
1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C или выше
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ET
Источник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDThe resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Источник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDCurrent forecast ensembles from the ECMWF and GFS models converge tightly on an overnight minimum near 19°C for Shanghai on May 17, underpinning the 99.4% market-implied probability for that exact outcome. This alignment reflects typical mid-May subtropical conditions over the Yangtze River Delta, where maritime moderation and urban heat-island effects at Pudong routinely stabilize minimum temperatures within a narrow 17–21°C climatological range. Resolution hinges on official China Meteorological Administration observations at the primary Shanghai station. An unexpected frontal passage or stronger-than-anticipated northerly flow could shift the low to 18°C or below, while a shallower boundary layer or persistent southwesterly return flow might keep readings at or above 20°C—scenarios that remain low-probability given the latest model guidance.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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