Ongoing U.S.-Iran diplomatic negotiations, including a May 2026 U.S. proposal for a one-page memorandum addressing sanctions relief, Strait of Hormuz access, and limits on uranium enrichment, represent the main driver behind the 59% implied probability for a nuclear deal before 2027. These talks, mediated by Oman and others, resumed after 2026 protests and military actions, marking the closest progress since earlier rounds stalled. Traders appear to weigh this momentum against persistent gaps on verification, existing stockpiles, and ballistic missile issues, while noting historical precedent for extended diplomacy. Upcoming responses to the framework could shift consensus if they advance toward formal agreement or expose renewed impasses.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
$1,332,722 Объем
$1,332,722 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
$1,332,722 Объем
$1,332,722 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Ongoing U.S.-Iran diplomatic negotiations, including a May 2026 U.S. proposal for a one-page memorandum addressing sanctions relief, Strait of Hormuz access, and limits on uranium enrichment, represent the main driver behind the 59% implied probability for a nuclear deal before 2027. These talks, mediated by Oman and others, resumed after 2026 protests and military actions, marking the closest progress since earlier rounds stalled. Traders appear to weigh this momentum against persistent gaps on verification, existing stockpiles, and ballistic missile issues, while noting historical precedent for extended diplomacy. Upcoming responses to the framework could shift consensus if they advance toward formal agreement or expose renewed impasses.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Открытие рынка: Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ET
Объем
$1,332,722Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Ongoing U.S.-Iran diplomatic negotiations, including a May 2026 U.S. proposal for a one-page memorandum addressing sanctions relief, Strait of Hormuz access, and limits on uranium enrichment, represent the main driver behind the 59% implied probability for a nuclear deal before 2027. These talks, mediated by Oman and others, resumed after 2026 protests and military actions, marking the closest progress since earlier rounds stalled. Traders appear to weigh this momentum against persistent gaps on verification, existing stockpiles, and ballistic missile issues, while noting historical precedent for extended diplomacy. Upcoming responses to the framework could shift consensus if they advance toward formal agreement or expose renewed impasses.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Объем
$1,332,722Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing U.S.-Iran diplomatic negotiations, including a May 2026 U.S. proposal for a one-page memorandum addressing sanctions relief, Strait of Hormuz access, and limits on uranium enrichment, represent the main driver behind the 59% implied probability for a nuclear deal before 2027. These talks, mediated by Oman and others, resumed after 2026 protests and military actions, marking the closest progress since earlier rounds stalled. Traders appear to weigh this momentum against persistent gaps on verification, existing stockpiles, and ballistic missile issues, while noting historical precedent for extended diplomacy. Upcoming responses to the framework could shift consensus if they advance toward formal agreement or expose renewed impasses.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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