Ongoing indirect negotiations mediated by Oman and Pakistan, including recent rounds in Islamabad and Geneva through April 2026, have driven trader consensus toward a 59.5% implied probability of a US-Iran nuclear agreement before 2027. The United States has proposed a 12- to 20-year suspension of uranium enrichment in exchange for sanctions relief and verifiable limits, while Iran reviews framework documents amid a fragile ceasefire following earlier strikes and domestic protests. President Trump has signaled openness to interim arrangements that halt enrichment without permanent forfeiture of rights under the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, though core disputes persist over highly enriched uranium stockpiles, missile constraints, and IAEA monitoring. These diplomatic developments, coupled with economic pressures on Tehran, sustain moderate optimism for resolution within the timeline.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
$1,332,710 Объем
$1,332,710 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
$1,332,710 Объем
$1,332,710 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Ongoing indirect negotiations mediated by Oman and Pakistan, including recent rounds in Islamabad and Geneva through April 2026, have driven trader consensus toward a 59.5% implied probability of a US-Iran nuclear agreement before 2027. The United States has proposed a 12- to 20-year suspension of uranium enrichment in exchange for sanctions relief and verifiable limits, while Iran reviews framework documents amid a fragile ceasefire following earlier strikes and domestic protests. President Trump has signaled openness to interim arrangements that halt enrichment without permanent forfeiture of rights under the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, though core disputes persist over highly enriched uranium stockpiles, missile constraints, and IAEA monitoring. These diplomatic developments, coupled with economic pressures on Tehran, sustain moderate optimism for resolution within the timeline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Открытие рынка: Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ET
Объем
$1,332,710Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Ongoing indirect negotiations mediated by Oman and Pakistan, including recent rounds in Islamabad and Geneva through April 2026, have driven trader consensus toward a 59.5% implied probability of a US-Iran nuclear agreement before 2027. The United States has proposed a 12- to 20-year suspension of uranium enrichment in exchange for sanctions relief and verifiable limits, while Iran reviews framework documents amid a fragile ceasefire following earlier strikes and domestic protests. President Trump has signaled openness to interim arrangements that halt enrichment without permanent forfeiture of rights under the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, though core disputes persist over highly enriched uranium stockpiles, missile constraints, and IAEA monitoring. These diplomatic developments, coupled with economic pressures on Tehran, sustain moderate optimism for resolution within the timeline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Объем
$1,332,710Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing indirect negotiations mediated by Oman and Pakistan, including recent rounds in Islamabad and Geneva through April 2026, have driven trader consensus toward a 59.5% implied probability of a US-Iran nuclear agreement before 2027. The United States has proposed a 12- to 20-year suspension of uranium enrichment in exchange for sanctions relief and verifiable limits, while Iran reviews framework documents amid a fragile ceasefire following earlier strikes and domestic protests. President Trump has signaled openness to interim arrangements that halt enrichment without permanent forfeiture of rights under the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, though core disputes persist over highly enriched uranium stockpiles, missile constraints, and IAEA monitoring. These diplomatic developments, coupled with economic pressures on Tehran, sustain moderate optimism for resolution within the timeline.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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