Recent meteorological model runs for Chengdu indicate a daily maximum temperature most likely settling between 28°C and 29°C, with light rain and increased cloud cover today limiting afternoon heating and keeping readings from pushing higher. This narrow range aligns with mid-May climatology in the Sichuan Basin, where seasonal warming typically produces highs averaging 27–30°C but often moderated by regional humidity and frontal influences. Ensemble guidance shows tight agreement on these values, with minimal divergence in projected wind patterns or insolation that could otherwise shift the peak by a degree or two. Traders are therefore weighting the 28°C and 29°C contracts most heavily, reflecting the remaining uncertainty in exact station observations that will determine final resolution.