Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in Seoul's May 17 minimum temperature, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 14–22°C outcomes at 24–26% each, driven by discrepancies across forecast models from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and global ensembles. KMA's latest short-range guidance projects a 16°C low under clear skies and light winds, favoring mid-teens results, but recent observations of anomalously cool nights—such as 11°C on May 6 and 12°C implied for May 7—signal persistent cool air advection from the north, potentially enhancing nocturnal radiational cooling. Historical mid-May averages hover near 13°C, tempered by Seoul's urban heat island, while variables like cloud development or southerly flow shifts could differentiate outcomes by 2–3°C. Daily KMA updates through May 16 will likely sharpen the distribution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วLowest temperature in Seoul on May 17?
Lowest temperature in Seoul on May 17?
15°C 19%
17°C 18%
16°C 18%
13°C 11%
ใหม่
ใหม่
May 17, 2026
12°C or below
11%
13°C
11%
14°C
10%
15°C
24%
16°C
18%
17°C
19%
18°C
1%
19°C
1%
20°C
1%
21°C
1%
22°C or higher
1%
15°C 19%
17°C 18%
16°C 18%
13°C 11%
ใหม่
ใหม่
May 17, 2026
12°C or below
$105 ปริมาณ
11%
13°C
$113 ปริมาณ
11%
14°C
$0 ปริมาณ
10%
15°C
$31 ปริมาณ
24%
16°C
$24 ปริมาณ
18%
17°C
$27 ปริมาณ
19%
18°C
$94 ปริมาณ
1%
19°C
$227 ปริมาณ
1%
20°C
$155 ปริมาณ
1%
21°C
$291 ปริมาณ
1%
22°C or higher
$43 ปริมาณ
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in Seoul's May 17 minimum temperature, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 14–22°C outcomes at 24–26% each, driven by discrepancies across forecast models from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and global ensembles. KMA's latest short-range guidance projects a 16°C low under clear skies and light winds, favoring mid-teens results, but recent observations of anomalously cool nights—such as 11°C on May 6 and 12°C implied for May 7—signal persistent cool air advection from the north, potentially enhancing nocturnal radiational cooling. Historical mid-May averages hover near 13°C, tempered by Seoul's urban heat island, while variables like cloud development or southerly flow shifts could differentiate outcomes by 2–3°C. Daily KMA updates through May 16 will likely sharpen the distribution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,109วันสิ้นสุด
May 17, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in Seoul's May 17 minimum temperature, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 14–22°C outcomes at 24–26% each, driven by discrepancies across forecast models from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and global ensembles. KMA's latest short-range guidance projects a 16°C low under clear skies and light winds, favoring mid-teens results, but recent observations of anomalously cool nights—such as 11°C on May 6 and 12°C implied for May 7—signal persistent cool air advection from the north, potentially enhancing nocturnal radiational cooling. Historical mid-May averages hover near 13°C, tempered by Seoul's urban heat island, while variables like cloud development or southerly flow shifts could differentiate outcomes by 2–3°C. Daily KMA updates through May 16 will likely sharpen the distribution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,109วันสิ้นสุด
May 17, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSITrader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in Seoul's May 17 minimum temperature, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 14–22°C outcomes at 24–26% each, driven by discrepancies across forecast models from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and global ensembles. KMA's latest short-range guidance projects a 16°C low under clear skies and light winds, favoring mid-teens results, but recent observations of anomalously cool nights—such as 11°C on May 6 and 12°C implied for May 7—signal persistent cool air advection from the north, potentially enhancing nocturnal radiational cooling. Historical mid-May averages hover near 13°C, tempered by Seoul's urban heat island, while variables like cloud development or southerly flow shifts could differentiate outcomes by 2–3°C. Daily KMA updates through May 16 will likely sharpen the distribution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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