Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Seattle's highest temperature on May 13 at 56-57°F, backed by official observational data from the National Weather Service at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport (KSEA), the standard station for such resolutions. This outcome stems from a sharp cool-down after early May record highs of 81°F on May 4, driven by a weakening upper-level ridge that enabled persistent onshore flow, cool Pacific air advection, and low-level marine stratus clouds capping daytime heating. Forecast models from NOAA aligned with this pattern, showing limited solar insolation and temperatures stuck in the mid-50s amid typical May climatology (average high ~64°F). Scenarios challenging this near-certainty include rare post hoc data revisions from quality control audits or disputes over measurement site compliance, though none are currently indicated.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Seattle on May 13?
Highest temperature in Seattle on May 13?
56-57°F 100.0%
53°F or below <1%
54-55°F <1%
58-59°F <1%
$128,203 ปริมาณ
$128,203 ปริมาณ
May 13, 2026
53°F or below
No
54-55°F
No
56-57°F
Yes
58-59°F
No
60-61°F
No
62-63°F
No
64-65°F
No
66-67°F
No
68-69°F
No
70-71°F
No
72°F or higher
No
56-57°F 100.0%
53°F or below <1%
54-55°F <1%
58-59°F <1%
$128,203 ปริมาณ
$128,203 ปริมาณ
May 13, 2026
53°F or below
$9,533 ปริมาณ
No
54-55°F
$17,067 ปริมาณ
No
56-57°F
$15,206 ปริมาณ
Yes
58-59°F
$8,220 ปริมาณ
No
60-61°F
$9,287 ปริมาณ
No
62-63°F
$7,889 ปริมาณ
No
64-65°F
$6,680 ปริมาณ
No
66-67°F
$8,453 ปริมาณ
No
68-69°F
$5,466 ปริมาณ
No
70-71°F
$4,689 ปริมาณ
No
72°F or higher
$35,711 ปริมาณ
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Seattle's highest temperature on May 13 at 56-57°F, backed by official observational data from the National Weather Service at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport (KSEA), the standard station for such resolutions. This outcome stems from a sharp cool-down after early May record highs of 81°F on May 4, driven by a weakening upper-level ridge that enabled persistent onshore flow, cool Pacific air advection, and low-level marine stratus clouds capping daytime heating. Forecast models from NOAA aligned with this pattern, showing limited solar insolation and temperatures stuck in the mid-50s amid typical May climatology (average high ~64°F). Scenarios challenging this near-certainty include rare post hoc data revisions from quality control audits or disputes over measurement site compliance, though none are currently indicated.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: May 11, 2026, 12:33 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$128,203วันสิ้นสุด
May 13, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 11, 2026, 12:33 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEAResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Seattle's highest temperature on May 13 at 56-57°F, backed by official observational data from the National Weather Service at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport (KSEA), the standard station for such resolutions. This outcome stems from a sharp cool-down after early May record highs of 81°F on May 4, driven by a weakening upper-level ridge that enabled persistent onshore flow, cool Pacific air advection, and low-level marine stratus clouds capping daytime heating. Forecast models from NOAA aligned with this pattern, showing limited solar insolation and temperatures stuck in the mid-50s amid typical May climatology (average high ~64°F). Scenarios challenging this near-certainty include rare post hoc data revisions from quality control audits or disputes over measurement site compliance, though none are currently indicated.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$128,203วันสิ้นสุด
May 13, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 11, 2026, 12:33 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEAResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Seattle's highest temperature on May 13 at 56-57°F, backed by official observational data from the National Weather Service at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport (KSEA), the standard station for such resolutions. This outcome stems from a sharp cool-down after early May record highs of 81°F on May 4, driven by a weakening upper-level ridge that enabled persistent onshore flow, cool Pacific air advection, and low-level marine stratus clouds capping daytime heating. Forecast models from NOAA aligned with this pattern, showing limited solar insolation and temperatures stuck in the mid-50s amid typical May climatology (average high ~64°F). Scenarios challenging this near-certainty include rare post hoc data revisions from quality control audits or disputes over measurement site compliance, though none are currently indicated.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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