The overwhelming trader consensus that the Iranian regime will not fall by June 30 reflects the absence of any imminent internal collapse or external intervention capable of producing rapid regime change. Iran's security apparatus has maintained control through prior waves of protests, while economic pressures from sanctions have not yet triggered coordinated nationwide disruption on the scale required for overthrow. Diplomatic channels remain open but show no breakthrough that would alter the timeline, and no major military escalation or leadership crisis has materialized in recent weeks. Scenarios that could still shift outcomes include sudden large-scale defections within the Revolutionary Guard or an unforeseen diplomatic rupture, though both remain low-probability events within the next six weeks.