Recent polls ahead of Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential election show incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holding a narrowing lead over Flávio Bolsonaro, with Lula typically at 40–43% of total voting intentions and 47–48% of valid votes across surveys from Datafolha, CNT/MDA, Palver, and others released in late September and early October. Flávio Bolsonaro has gained several points in the past two weeks, tightening the race and reinforcing expectations that no candidate will surpass 50% of valid votes. Aggregates place Lula’s projected first-round share most consistently in the mid-40s percent range, aligning with trader consensus around 44–47% while leaving room for lower outcomes if late shifts or turnout patterns favor challengers. The first-round vote occurs tomorrow, with any runoff scheduled for October 25.