The absence of any detected near-Earth objects large enough to produce a 10-kiloton impact has anchored trader consensus around an 84.5 percent probability of “No” for a major meteor strike in 2026. NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and Sentry monitoring systems continue to catalog only tiny, low-probability threats, while recent close approaches such as asteroid 2026 JH2 have been confirmed to pass harmlessly. Historical records show events exceeding 10 kt occur roughly once every few years on average, and with no qualifying bolide detected through mid-May despite expanded fireball reporting networks, the market reflects the low likelihood of an undetected impact before year-end. Upcoming asteroid surveys and infrared satellite data will remain the key catalysts that could shift odds if a new object emerges.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоMajor meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
$154,169 Обс.
$154,169 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
$154,169 Обс.
$154,169 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.The absence of any detected near-Earth objects large enough to produce a 10-kiloton impact has anchored trader consensus around an 84.5 percent probability of “No” for a major meteor strike in 2026. NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and Sentry monitoring systems continue to catalog only tiny, low-probability threats, while recent close approaches such as asteroid 2026 JH2 have been confirmed to pass harmlessly. Historical records show events exceeding 10 kt occur roughly once every few years on average, and with no qualifying bolide detected through mid-May despite expanded fireball reporting networks, the market reflects the low likelihood of an undetected impact before year-end. Upcoming asteroid surveys and infrared satellite data will remain the key catalysts that could shift odds if a new object emerges.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Ринок відкрито: Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ET
Обсяг
$154,169Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.The absence of any detected near-Earth objects large enough to produce a 10-kiloton impact has anchored trader consensus around an 84.5 percent probability of “No” for a major meteor strike in 2026. NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and Sentry monitoring systems continue to catalog only tiny, low-probability threats, while recent close approaches such as asteroid 2026 JH2 have been confirmed to pass harmlessly. Historical records show events exceeding 10 kt occur roughly once every few years on average, and with no qualifying bolide detected through mid-May despite expanded fireball reporting networks, the market reflects the low likelihood of an undetected impact before year-end. Upcoming asteroid surveys and infrared satellite data will remain the key catalysts that could shift odds if a new object emerges.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Обсяг
$154,169Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The absence of any detected near-Earth objects large enough to produce a 10-kiloton impact has anchored trader consensus around an 84.5 percent probability of “No” for a major meteor strike in 2026. NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and Sentry monitoring systems continue to catalog only tiny, low-probability threats, while recent close approaches such as asteroid 2026 JH2 have been confirmed to pass harmlessly. Historical records show events exceeding 10 kt occur roughly once every few years on average, and with no qualifying bolide detected through mid-May despite expanded fireball reporting networks, the market reflects the low likelihood of an undetected impact before year-end. Upcoming asteroid surveys and infrared satellite data will remain the key catalysts that could shift odds if a new object emerges.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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