California's 43rd congressional district maintains a strong Democratic partisan lean, reflected in its D+27 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent electoral history. Incumbent Maxine Waters advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with over 63 percent of the vote against Republican Cristian Morales and intra-party challengers, positioning her for the November general election. Trader consensus assigns the Democratic nominee a 95.5 percent implied probability, driven by the district's voter composition, incumbency advantages, and limited Republican infrastructure. Scenarios that could narrow this margin include late-cycle turnout shifts, candidate health developments, or unexpected national political realignments altering local voting patterns before Election Day.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$30,950 交易量
$30,950 交易量
2026-11-03
民主黨
96%
共和黨
3%
$30,950 交易量
$30,950 交易量
2026-11-03
民主黨
$10,935 交易量
96%
共和黨
$20,015 交易量
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-43 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 43rd congressional district maintains a strong Democratic partisan lean, reflected in its D+27 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent electoral history. Incumbent Maxine Waters advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with over 63 percent of the vote against Republican Cristian Morales and intra-party challengers, positioning her for the November general election. Trader consensus assigns the Democratic nominee a 95.5 percent implied probability, driven by the district's voter composition, incumbency advantages, and limited Republican infrastructure. Scenarios that could narrow this margin include late-cycle turnout shifts, candidate health developments, or unexpected national political realignments altering local voting patterns before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-43 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 28, 2026, 10:29 AM ET
交易量
$30,950結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 10:29 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-43 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 43rd congressional district maintains a strong Democratic partisan lean, reflected in its D+27 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent electoral history. Incumbent Maxine Waters advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with over 63 percent of the vote against Republican Cristian Morales and intra-party challengers, positioning her for the November general election. Trader consensus assigns the Democratic nominee a 95.5 percent implied probability, driven by the district's voter composition, incumbency advantages, and limited Republican infrastructure. Scenarios that could narrow this margin include late-cycle turnout shifts, candidate health developments, or unexpected national political realignments altering local voting patterns before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-43 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$30,950結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 10:29 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's 43rd congressional district maintains a strong Democratic partisan lean, reflected in its D+27 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent electoral history. Incumbent Maxine Waters advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with over 63 percent of the vote against Republican Cristian Morales and intra-party challengers, positioning her for the November general election. Trader consensus assigns the Democratic nominee a 95.5 percent implied probability, driven by the district's voter composition, incumbency advantages, and limited Republican infrastructure. Scenarios that could narrow this margin include late-cycle turnout shifts, candidate health developments, or unexpected national political realignments altering local voting patterns before Election Day.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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