Traders have converged on 22°C as the near-certain outcome for Cape Town’s highest temperature on May 16 because official observations from Cape Town International Airport, reported through South African Weather Service networks, recorded a daily maximum of exactly 22°C under stable high-pressure conditions with light southeast winds and limited afternoon cloud cover. This aligns with typical early-autumn climatology for the region, where marine-layer influence and a developing sea breeze often cap daytime peaks near 20–23°C. The market’s 100% implied probability for the 22°C bracket reflects this verified measurement rather than forecast uncertainty. Only an unexpected post-event data revision from the primary observing station or a redefinition of the resolution criteria could alter the result.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Highest temperature in Cape Town on May 16?
22°C 100.0%
16°C or below <1%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
$37,976 交易量
$37,976 交易量
16°C or below
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
Yes
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C or higher
No
22°C 100.0%
16°C or below <1%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
$37,976 交易量
$37,976 交易量
16°C or below
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
Yes
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C or higher
No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Cape Town International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: May 14, 2026, 12:45 AM ET
已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Cape Town International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
Traders have converged on 22°C as the near-certain outcome for Cape Town’s highest temperature on May 16 because official observations from Cape Town International Airport, reported through South African Weather Service networks, recorded a daily maximum of exactly 22°C under stable high-pressure conditions with light southeast winds and limited afternoon cloud cover. This aligns with typical early-autumn climatology for the region, where marine-layer influence and a developing sea breeze often cap daytime peaks near 20–23°C. The market’s 100% implied probability for the 22°C bracket reflects this verified measurement rather than forecast uncertainty. Only an unexpected post-event data revision from the primary observing station or a redefinition of the resolution criteria could alter the result.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions