The market's 100% implied probability on a 32°C daily maximum for Hong Kong on September 11, 2026, aligns with official Hong Kong Observatory measurements confirming that exact peak temperature. Persistent late-summer conditions, including elevated sea surface temperatures in the northern South China Sea and light variable winds under a weakening monsoon influence, supported daytime heating consistent with seasonal norms near 31–32°C. Clear to partly cloudy skies and relative humidity dropping below 60% during peak hours enabled the observed maximum, matching model consensus from regional forecasts. This outcome sits within the typical September range but slightly above the 1991–2020 climatological average. A shift in steering patterns or increased cloud cover could have capped readings below 32°C, though no such revision materialized in final observations.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月11日香港最高溫度？
9月11日香港最高溫度？
32°C 100.0%
26°C或以下 <1%
27°C <1%
28°C <1%
$113,894 交易量
$113,894 交易量
2026-09-11
26°C或以下
否
27°C
否
28°C
否
29°C
否
30°C
否
31°C
否
32°C
是
33°C
否
34°C
否
35°C
否
36°C或以上
否
32°C 100.0%
26°C或以下 <1%
27°C <1%
28°C <1%
$113,894 交易量
$113,894 交易量
2026-09-11
26°C或以下
$265 交易量
否
27°C
$228 交易量
否
28°C
$19,467 交易量
否
29°C
$11,272 交易量
否
30°C
$12,941 交易量
否
31°C
$20,970 交易量
否
32°C
$16,415 交易量
是
33°C
$28,171 交易量
否
34°C
$3,661 交易量
否
35°C
$274 交易量
否
36°C或以上
$230 交易量
否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The market's 100% implied probability on a 32°C daily maximum for Hong Kong on September 11, 2026, aligns with official Hong Kong Observatory measurements confirming that exact peak temperature. Persistent late-summer conditions, including elevated sea surface temperatures in the northern South China Sea and light variable winds under a weakening monsoon influence, supported daytime heating consistent with seasonal norms near 31–32°C. Clear to partly cloudy skies and relative humidity dropping below 60% during peak hours enabled the observed maximum, matching model consensus from regional forecasts. This outcome sits within the typical September range but slightly above the 1991–2020 climatological average. A shift in steering patterns or increased cloud cover could have capped readings below 32°C, though no such revision materialized in final observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間： Sep 9, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
交易量
$113,894結束日期
2026-09-11市場開放時間
Sep 9, 2026, 12:56 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The market's 100% implied probability on a 32°C daily maximum for Hong Kong on September 11, 2026, aligns with official Hong Kong Observatory measurements confirming that exact peak temperature. Persistent late-summer conditions, including elevated sea surface temperatures in the northern South China Sea and light variable winds under a weakening monsoon influence, supported daytime heating consistent with seasonal norms near 31–32°C. Clear to partly cloudy skies and relative humidity dropping below 60% during peak hours enabled the observed maximum, matching model consensus from regional forecasts. This outcome sits within the typical September range but slightly above the 1991–2020 climatological average. A shift in steering patterns or increased cloud cover could have capped readings below 32°C, though no such revision materialized in final observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$113,894結束日期
2026-09-11市場開放時間
Sep 9, 2026, 12:56 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
The market's 100% implied probability on a 32°C daily maximum for Hong Kong on September 11, 2026, aligns with official Hong Kong Observatory measurements confirming that exact peak temperature. Persistent late-summer conditions, including elevated sea surface temperatures in the northern South China Sea and light variable winds under a weakening monsoon influence, supported daytime heating consistent with seasonal norms near 31–32°C. Clear to partly cloudy skies and relative humidity dropping below 60% during peak hours enabled the observed maximum, matching model consensus from regional forecasts. This outcome sits within the typical September range but slightly above the 1991–2020 climatological average. A shift in steering patterns or increased cloud cover could have capped readings below 32°C, though no such revision materialized in final observations.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions