Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System show Milan's maximum temperature on May 17 clustering tightly between 20°C and 23°C under stable high-pressure conditions across the Po Valley. This strong model consensus underpins the market's overwhelming 99.9% implied probability on the 21°C outcome, consistent with typical mid-May climatology where daily highs average 21–23°C. Traders are pricing in minimal deviation risk given the narrow forecast spread and absence of significant frontal activity or cloud cover that could alter peak readings. Resolution hinges on official Italian meteorological service observations; only an unexpected late-day surge or localized measurement variance could realistically shift the final recorded high.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於5月17日米蘭的最高溫度?
21°C 99.8%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
15°C or below <1%
$43,366 交易量
$43,366 交易量
15°C or below
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
100%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C or higher
<1%
21°C 99.8%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
15°C or below <1%
$43,366 交易量
$43,366 交易量
15°C or below
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
100%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System show Milan's maximum temperature on May 17 clustering tightly between 20°C and 23°C under stable high-pressure conditions across the Po Valley. This strong model consensus underpins the market's overwhelming 99.9% implied probability on the 21°C outcome, consistent with typical mid-May climatology where daily highs average 21–23°C. Traders are pricing in minimal deviation risk given the narrow forecast spread and absence of significant frontal activity or cloud cover that could alter peak readings. Resolution hinges on official Italian meteorological service observations; only an unexpected late-day surge or localized measurement variance could realistically shift the final recorded high.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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