Recent weather model runs from the Korea Meteorological Administration and global ensembles have converged on a maximum of 25 °C at the official Incheon International Airport station, producing the market’s near-certain 100 % implied probability for that exact outcome. Mid-May climatology in Seoul typically features highs near 24–26 °C under weak high-pressure influence, and current surface observations show clear skies, light westerly flow, and a 500 hPa ridge supporting modest daytime heating without strong advection or precipitation. Minor model spread remains in boundary-layer mixing and urban heat-island effects, yet none currently shift the daily peak outside the 25 °C bin. An unexpected increase in low-level moisture or a late-day sea-breeze front could still trim the high by 1–2 °C before official close-of-day measurement.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於5月17日首爾最高溫度?
25°C 100.0%
16°C or below <1%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
$225,793 交易量
$225,793 交易量
16°C or below
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
100%
26°C or higher
<1%
25°C 100.0%
16°C or below <1%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
$225,793 交易量
$225,793 交易量
16°C or below
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
100%
26°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: May 15, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Recent weather model runs from the Korea Meteorological Administration and global ensembles have converged on a maximum of 25 °C at the official Incheon International Airport station, producing the market’s near-certain 100 % implied probability for that exact outcome. Mid-May climatology in Seoul typically features highs near 24–26 °C under weak high-pressure influence, and current surface observations show clear skies, light westerly flow, and a 500 hPa ridge supporting modest daytime heating without strong advection or precipitation. Minor model spread remains in boundary-layer mixing and urban heat-island effects, yet none currently shift the daily peak outside the 25 °C bin. An unexpected increase in low-level moisture or a late-day sea-breeze front could still trim the high by 1–2 °C before official close-of-day measurement.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions