Recent meteorological model consensus from the Korea Meteorological Administration points to a stable high-pressure system over the Korean Peninsula suppressing vertical mixing and limiting daytime heating, anchoring Seoul's maximum temperature near 25°C on May 17. Ensemble runs show minimal deviation in surface energy balance, with typical May insolation and no advective warming from southerly flows. This scientific baseline underpins the overwhelming market consensus. A realistic challenge would require an unexpected late-morning clearing of stratus or a rapid shift in the 500 hPa ridge, allowing temperatures to climb an additional 2–3°C beyond current guidance before official daily maximum verification.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於5月17日首爾最高溫度?
25°C 100.0%
26°C or higher <1%
16°C or below <1%
17°C <1%
$231,715 交易量
$231,715 交易量
16°C or below
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
100%
26°C or higher
<1%
25°C 100.0%
26°C or higher <1%
16°C or below <1%
17°C <1%
$231,715 交易量
$231,715 交易量
16°C or below
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
100%
26°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: May 15, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Recent meteorological model consensus from the Korea Meteorological Administration points to a stable high-pressure system over the Korean Peninsula suppressing vertical mixing and limiting daytime heating, anchoring Seoul's maximum temperature near 25°C on May 17. Ensemble runs show minimal deviation in surface energy balance, with typical May insolation and no advective warming from southerly flows. This scientific baseline underpins the overwhelming market consensus. A realistic challenge would require an unexpected late-morning clearing of stratus or a rapid shift in the 500 hPa ridge, allowing temperatures to climb an additional 2–3°C beyond current guidance before official daily maximum verification.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions