Recent forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and ECMWF ensembles show persistent cloud cover and scattered showers over the Pearl River Delta, moderating daytime heating and producing a narrow range of possible highs centered near 27–29°C. This tight clustering of outcomes reflects high uncertainty in afternoon clearing, which could allow brief solar heating to push readings toward 29°C, versus sustained overcast conditions capping them at 27°C under typical May humidity and light onshore flow. Historical climatology places Shenzhen’s mid-May average high near 29.5°C, but current model consensus favors suppression below that baseline. Traders are weighting the latest short-range runs heavily ahead of tomorrow’s official station observations, with any revised guidance on precipitation timing likely to shift the narrow spread among the three leading contracts.