Forecasts from agencies including the BBC and UK Met Office, alongside ECMWF and GFS model output, cluster Warsaw’s August 13 maximum near 23–24 °C under stable high pressure, sunny intervals, and light northeasterly winds. This aligns with mid-August climatology of 23–25 °C daytime highs at Chopin Airport. Modest daytime radiative heating without strong warm-air advection or clear-sky amplification keeps extremes unlikely, while variable cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing introduce the narrow spread between 23 °C and 24 °C. Traders have priced these two outcomes nearly evenly because ensemble guidance shows limited divergence, with any late-day shift in insolation or wind speed able to tip the official maximum by one degree. Lower-probability bins above 25 °C would require unexpected steering changes or reduced cloudiness before the daily peak is recorded.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月13日華沙的最高溫度？
8月13日華沙的最高溫度？
23°C 47%
24°C 41%
22°C 7%
25°C 3%
$18,609 交易量
$18,609 交易量
2026-08-13
20°C或以下
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
7%
23°C
47%
24°C
41%
25°C
3%
26°C
1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C或以上
<1%
23°C 47%
24°C 41%
22°C 7%
25°C 3%
$18,609 交易量
$18,609 交易量
2026-08-13
20°C或以下
$722 交易量
<1%
21°C
$1,789 交易量
<1%
22°C
$3,697 交易量
7%
23°C
$2,728 交易量
47%
24°C
$4,552 交易量
41%
25°C
$1,460 交易量
3%
26°C
$1,249 交易量
1%
27°C
$528 交易量
<1%
28°C
$893 交易量
<1%
29°C
$782 交易量
<1%
30°C或以上
$210 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecasts from agencies including the BBC and UK Met Office, alongside ECMWF and GFS model output, cluster Warsaw’s August 13 maximum near 23–24 °C under stable high pressure, sunny intervals, and light northeasterly winds. This aligns with mid-August climatology of 23–25 °C daytime highs at Chopin Airport. Modest daytime radiative heating without strong warm-air advection or clear-sky amplification keeps extremes unlikely, while variable cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing introduce the narrow spread between 23 °C and 24 °C. Traders have priced these two outcomes nearly evenly because ensemble guidance shows limited divergence, with any late-day shift in insolation or wind speed able to tip the official maximum by one degree. Lower-probability bins above 25 °C would require unexpected steering changes or reduced cloudiness before the daily peak is recorded.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 11, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
交易量
$18,609結束日期
2026-08-13市場開放時間
Aug 11, 2026, 1:03 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecasts from agencies including the BBC and UK Met Office, alongside ECMWF and GFS model output, cluster Warsaw’s August 13 maximum near 23–24 °C under stable high pressure, sunny intervals, and light northeasterly winds. This aligns with mid-August climatology of 23–25 °C daytime highs at Chopin Airport. Modest daytime radiative heating without strong warm-air advection or clear-sky amplification keeps extremes unlikely, while variable cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing introduce the narrow spread between 23 °C and 24 °C. Traders have priced these two outcomes nearly evenly because ensemble guidance shows limited divergence, with any late-day shift in insolation or wind speed able to tip the official maximum by one degree. Lower-probability bins above 25 °C would require unexpected steering changes or reduced cloudiness before the daily peak is recorded.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$18,609結束日期
2026-08-13市場開放時間
Aug 11, 2026, 1:03 AM ETForecasts from agencies including the BBC and UK Met Office, alongside ECMWF and GFS model output, cluster Warsaw’s August 13 maximum near 23–24 °C under stable high pressure, sunny intervals, and light northeasterly winds. This aligns with mid-August climatology of 23–25 °C daytime highs at Chopin Airport. Modest daytime radiative heating without strong warm-air advection or clear-sky amplification keeps extremes unlikely, while variable cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing introduce the narrow spread between 23 °C and 24 °C. Traders have priced these two outcomes nearly evenly because ensemble guidance shows limited divergence, with any late-day shift in insolation or wind speed able to tip the official maximum by one degree. Lower-probability bins above 25 °C would require unexpected steering changes or reduced cloudiness before the daily peak is recorded.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions