Recent Met Office and supporting model runs show London under sunny intervals with light northerly flow after a hot preceding day, keeping the overnight minimum near 20 °C and preventing further nocturnal cooling. This consensus on mild conditions under clear-to-partly-cloudy skies underpins the 93 % market-implied probability for a 20 °C low. A realistic challenge would require an unexpected influx of cooler maritime air or stronger radiational cooling than currently modeled, which could push readings to 17–18 °C before the daily minimum is recorded. Updated hourly observations and the next model cycle will clarify whether the temperature floor holds or drops.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月15日倫敦的最低溫度？
8月15日倫敦的最低溫度？
20°C 93%
19°C 6%
18°C <1%
14°C或以下 <1%
$16,841 交易量
$16,841 交易量
2026-08-15
14°C或以下
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
1%
19°C
6%
20°C
93%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C或以上
<1%
20°C 93%
19°C 6%
18°C <1%
14°C或以下 <1%
$16,841 交易量
$16,841 交易量
2026-08-15
14°C或以下
$1,032 交易量
<1%
15°C
$572 交易量
<1%
16°C
$464 交易量
<1%
17°C
$831 交易量
<1%
18°C
$1,592 交易量
1%
19°C
$3,137 交易量
6%
20°C
$5,203 交易量
93%
21°C
$2,499 交易量
<1%
22°C
$910 交易量
<1%
23°C
$335 交易量
<1%
24°C或以上
$265 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Met Office and supporting model runs show London under sunny intervals with light northerly flow after a hot preceding day, keeping the overnight minimum near 20 °C and preventing further nocturnal cooling. This consensus on mild conditions under clear-to-partly-cloudy skies underpins the 93 % market-implied probability for a 20 °C low. A realistic challenge would require an unexpected influx of cooler maritime air or stronger radiational cooling than currently modeled, which could push readings to 17–18 °C before the daily minimum is recorded. Updated hourly observations and the next model cycle will clarify whether the temperature floor holds or drops.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 13, 2026, 1:28 AM ET
交易量
$16,841結束日期
2026-08-15市場開放時間
Aug 13, 2026, 1:28 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Met Office and supporting model runs show London under sunny intervals with light northerly flow after a hot preceding day, keeping the overnight minimum near 20 °C and preventing further nocturnal cooling. This consensus on mild conditions under clear-to-partly-cloudy skies underpins the 93 % market-implied probability for a 20 °C low. A realistic challenge would require an unexpected influx of cooler maritime air or stronger radiational cooling than currently modeled, which could push readings to 17–18 °C before the daily minimum is recorded. Updated hourly observations and the next model cycle will clarify whether the temperature floor holds or drops.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$16,841結束日期
2026-08-15市場開放時間
Aug 13, 2026, 1:28 AM ETRecent Met Office and supporting model runs show London under sunny intervals with light northerly flow after a hot preceding day, keeping the overnight minimum near 20 °C and preventing further nocturnal cooling. This consensus on mild conditions under clear-to-partly-cloudy skies underpins the 93 % market-implied probability for a 20 °C low. A realistic challenge would require an unexpected influx of cooler maritime air or stronger radiational cooling than currently modeled, which could push readings to 17–18 °C before the daily minimum is recorded. Updated hourly observations and the next model cycle will clarify whether the temperature floor holds or drops.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions