Trader consensus assigns 100% implied probability to 18°C as Warsaw's highest temperature on May 14, driven by official observations at Warsaw Chopin Airport (EPWA) confirming a midday peak of 18°C under partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds from a cool continental air mass. Recent showers through May 12–13 suppressed highs to 13°C amid a lingering low-pressure system, but today's partial clearing aligned with ECMWF, GFS, and IMGW ensemble forecasts clustering at 17–19°C, consistent with mid-May climatological norms of 18–19°C daytime highs. Evening METAR reports at 17°C indicate the peak has passed, with increasing cloud cover likely preventing further warming. Realistic challenges include unexpected late-day sunshine piercing clouds for a brief 19°C spike or minor data revisions upon finalization via Weather Underground, though model guidance shows thunderstorms capping upside potential.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Highest temperature in Warsaw on May 14?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on May 14?
18°C 100.0%
13°C or below <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$43,060 交易量
$43,060 交易量
2026-05-14
13°C or below
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
Yes
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C or higher
No
18°C 100.0%
13°C or below <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$43,060 交易量
$43,060 交易量
2026-05-14
13°C or below
$1,035 交易量
No
14°C
$1,610 交易量
No
15°C
$1,793 交易量
No
16°C
$2,985 交易量
No
17°C
$7,162 交易量
No
18°C
$7,710 交易量
Yes
19°C
$5,474 交易量
No
20°C
$6,177 交易量
No
21°C
$2,051 交易量
No
22°C
$2,932 交易量
No
23°C or higher
$4,131 交易量
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus assigns 100% implied probability to 18°C as Warsaw's highest temperature on May 14, driven by official observations at Warsaw Chopin Airport (EPWA) confirming a midday peak of 18°C under partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds from a cool continental air mass. Recent showers through May 12–13 suppressed highs to 13°C amid a lingering low-pressure system, but today's partial clearing aligned with ECMWF, GFS, and IMGW ensemble forecasts clustering at 17–19°C, consistent with mid-May climatological norms of 18–19°C daytime highs. Evening METAR reports at 17°C indicate the peak has passed, with increasing cloud cover likely preventing further warming. Realistic challenges include unexpected late-day sunshine piercing clouds for a brief 19°C spike or minor data revisions upon finalization via Weather Underground, though model guidance shows thunderstorms capping upside potential.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間： May 12, 2026, 12:19 AM ET
交易量
$43,060結束日期
2026-05-14市場開放時間
May 12, 2026, 12:19 AM ET已提議結果: Yes
無爭議
最終結果: Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus assigns 100% implied probability to 18°C as Warsaw's highest temperature on May 14, driven by official observations at Warsaw Chopin Airport (EPWA) confirming a midday peak of 18°C under partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds from a cool continental air mass. Recent showers through May 12–13 suppressed highs to 13°C amid a lingering low-pressure system, but today's partial clearing aligned with ECMWF, GFS, and IMGW ensemble forecasts clustering at 17–19°C, consistent with mid-May climatological norms of 18–19°C daytime highs. Evening METAR reports at 17°C indicate the peak has passed, with increasing cloud cover likely preventing further warming. Realistic challenges include unexpected late-day sunshine piercing clouds for a brief 19°C spike or minor data revisions upon finalization via Weather Underground, though model guidance shows thunderstorms capping upside potential.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$43,060結束日期
2026-05-14市場開放時間
May 12, 2026, 12:19 AM ET已提議結果: Yes
無爭議
最終結果: Yes
Trader consensus assigns 100% implied probability to 18°C as Warsaw's highest temperature on May 14, driven by official observations at Warsaw Chopin Airport (EPWA) confirming a midday peak of 18°C under partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds from a cool continental air mass. Recent showers through May 12–13 suppressed highs to 13°C amid a lingering low-pressure system, but today's partial clearing aligned with ECMWF, GFS, and IMGW ensemble forecasts clustering at 17–19°C, consistent with mid-May climatological norms of 18–19°C daytime highs. Evening METAR reports at 17°C indicate the peak has passed, with increasing cloud cover likely preventing further warming. Realistic challenges include unexpected late-day sunshine piercing clouds for a brief 19°C spike or minor data revisions upon finalization via Weather Underground, though model guidance shows thunderstorms capping upside potential.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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警惕外部連結哦。
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