Current short-range numerical weather prediction models from MetService New Zealand cluster on an afternoon maximum of 13–15°C for Wellington on May 18 under a stable southerly regime and light winds across Cook Strait. This range aligns with mid-autumn climatology, where daily highs typically fall between 12°C and 15°C, and recent model runs show minimal day-to-day variability following a period of settled conditions. The 14°C outcome leads at 55.5% implied probability because most ensemble members keep peak temperatures from reaching the warmer threshold needed for 15°C while avoiding the cooler bias that would favor 13°C. Traders are watching the next MetService update and official observations from Wellington International Airport, as even a modest shift in wind direction or cloud cover could adjust the final reading by 1°C.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於5月18日惠靈頓的最高溫度?
14°C 56%
15°C 35%
13°C 6.3%
16°C 5.3%
$21,436 交易量
$21,436 交易量
8°C或以下
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
1%
13°C
6%
14°C
56%
15°C
35%
16°C
5%
17°C
1%
18°C或更高
<1%
14°C 56%
15°C 35%
13°C 6.3%
16°C 5.3%
$21,436 交易量
$21,436 交易量
8°C或以下
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
1%
13°C
6%
14°C
56%
15°C
35%
16°C
5%
17°C
1%
18°C或更高
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Current short-range numerical weather prediction models from MetService New Zealand cluster on an afternoon maximum of 13–15°C for Wellington on May 18 under a stable southerly regime and light winds across Cook Strait. This range aligns with mid-autumn climatology, where daily highs typically fall between 12°C and 15°C, and recent model runs show minimal day-to-day variability following a period of settled conditions. The 14°C outcome leads at 55.5% implied probability because most ensemble members keep peak temperatures from reaching the warmer threshold needed for 15°C while avoiding the cooler bias that would favor 13°C. Traders are watching the next MetService update and official observations from Wellington International Airport, as even a modest shift in wind direction or cloud cover could adjust the final reading by 1°C.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions