Latest numerical weather prediction models from the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles converge on a daily maximum of 28°C for Wuhan on May 17, supported by light southerly flow under a modest subtropical ridge that favors daytime warming with partial cloud cover limiting further intensification. This strong scientific consensus from official monitoring sources underpins the market-implied odds of 100% for the 28°C outcome, reflecting traders’ assessment of near-certain resolution based on verified observational thresholds at Wuhan Tianhe International Airport. Scenarios that could realistically shift probabilities include an unexpected shift in steering patterns or rapid afternoon clearing that pushes the peak to 29°C or higher, though current model agreement makes such changes unlikely before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於5月17日武漢氣溫最高?
28°C 100.0%
24°C or below <1%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
$56,000 交易量
$56,000 交易量
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
100%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C or higher
<1%
28°C 100.0%
24°C or below <1%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
$56,000 交易量
$56,000 交易量
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
100%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Latest numerical weather prediction models from the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles converge on a daily maximum of 28°C for Wuhan on May 17, supported by light southerly flow under a modest subtropical ridge that favors daytime warming with partial cloud cover limiting further intensification. This strong scientific consensus from official monitoring sources underpins the market-implied odds of 100% for the 28°C outcome, reflecting traders’ assessment of near-certain resolution based on verified observational thresholds at Wuhan Tianhe International Airport. Scenarios that could realistically shift probabilities include an unexpected shift in steering patterns or rapid afternoon clearing that pushes the peak to 29°C or higher, though current model agreement makes such changes unlikely before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions