Recent official and ensemble forecasts from sources including ECMWF and GFS consensus indicate a minimum temperature near 25°C for Chengdu on August 24, driven by persistent high humidity and scattered showers that limit nocturnal radiative cooling in the enclosed Sichuan basin. Variable cloud cover and light southerly winds could allow slightly greater overnight drops toward 23–24°C if clearer intervals develop, while heavier precipitation would trap heat and support readings closer to 26–27°C. This narrow range around typical late-August climatology explains the tight clustering of market-implied odds between 20°C-or-below and 25–27°C outcomes, with traders weighing model spread on boundary-layer moisture against the basin’s topographic heat-trapping effect. Updated guidance from the China Meteorological Administration in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine resolution probabilities.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月24日成都最低溫？
8月24日成都最低溫？
30°C或更高 85%
20°C或以下 83%
21°C 46%
25°C 46%
最新
最新
2026-08-24
20°C或以下
83%
21°C
46%
22°C
42%
23°C
24%
24°C
28%
25°C
46%
26°C
42%
27°C
43%
28°C
5%
29°C
8%
30°C或更高
85%
30°C或更高 85%
20°C或以下 83%
21°C 46%
25°C 46%
最新
最新
2026-08-24
20°C或以下
$5 交易量
83%
21°C
$5 交易量
46%
22°C
$0 交易量
42%
23°C
$0 交易量
24%
24°C
$0 交易量
28%
25°C
$0 交易量
46%
26°C
$0 交易量
42%
27°C
$0 交易量
43%
28°C
$5 交易量
5%
29°C
$5 交易量
8%
30°C或更高
$5 交易量
85%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official and ensemble forecasts from sources including ECMWF and GFS consensus indicate a minimum temperature near 25°C for Chengdu on August 24, driven by persistent high humidity and scattered showers that limit nocturnal radiative cooling in the enclosed Sichuan basin. Variable cloud cover and light southerly winds could allow slightly greater overnight drops toward 23–24°C if clearer intervals develop, while heavier precipitation would trap heat and support readings closer to 26–27°C. This narrow range around typical late-August climatology explains the tight clustering of market-implied odds between 20°C-or-below and 25–27°C outcomes, with traders weighing model spread on boundary-layer moisture against the basin’s topographic heat-trapping effect. Updated guidance from the China Meteorological Administration in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine resolution probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 22, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
交易量
$25結束日期
2026-08-24市場開放時間
Aug 22, 2026, 12:31 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official and ensemble forecasts from sources including ECMWF and GFS consensus indicate a minimum temperature near 25°C for Chengdu on August 24, driven by persistent high humidity and scattered showers that limit nocturnal radiative cooling in the enclosed Sichuan basin. Variable cloud cover and light southerly winds could allow slightly greater overnight drops toward 23–24°C if clearer intervals develop, while heavier precipitation would trap heat and support readings closer to 26–27°C. This narrow range around typical late-August climatology explains the tight clustering of market-implied odds between 20°C-or-below and 25–27°C outcomes, with traders weighing model spread on boundary-layer moisture against the basin’s topographic heat-trapping effect. Updated guidance from the China Meteorological Administration in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine resolution probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$25結束日期
2026-08-24市場開放時間
Aug 22, 2026, 12:31 AM ETRecent official and ensemble forecasts from sources including ECMWF and GFS consensus indicate a minimum temperature near 25°C for Chengdu on August 24, driven by persistent high humidity and scattered showers that limit nocturnal radiative cooling in the enclosed Sichuan basin. Variable cloud cover and light southerly winds could allow slightly greater overnight drops toward 23–24°C if clearer intervals develop, while heavier precipitation would trap heat and support readings closer to 26–27°C. This narrow range around typical late-August climatology explains the tight clustering of market-implied odds between 20°C-or-below and 25–27°C outcomes, with traders weighing model spread on boundary-layer moisture against the basin’s topographic heat-trapping effect. Updated guidance from the China Meteorological Administration in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine resolution probabilities.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions